Contentions between the countries of the world have become a common and a frequent thing. Some countries try to alleviate it, and for some, it becomes such a grave situation that wars are declared. One such case is the rivalry of Iran and Israel over nuclear proliferation. But why does this particular rivalry is of much importance globally? Nuclear proliferation by Iran and its threats to declare a nuclear war against Israel can be given the credit to have made the rivalry a global problem, as it can very well turn out to be the beginning of a world war. Secondly, it has become a bone of contention for India, as the whole rivalry has in a way dragged our country into the battle which India had dreaded for quite a long time.
The rivalry between the two intensified since the attack on Israeli Ambassador took place in Delhi last year, bringing their battle to India and being a political hot potato for our country. With this the blame game started with both the countries holding each other responsible for the conspiracy. For India, It has become a difficult act of balance as both the countries have been equally important to India. The dependency of India on foreign energy forms the back bone of Indo-Iran relationship and this dependency is due to the tremendous economic growth it is experiencing. Iran is one of largest provider of oil to India. On the other hand, India heavily relies on Israel for science and technology, defence and co-operation in fighting against terrorism. India tried to be a fence sitter for a long time, but with it being the battle ground now for the rivalry, it proved to be difficult to take no sides. The way India has managed the situation keeping her own interests in mind is a matter of tricky politics.
The major reason of the fear Israel has towards Iran having a nuclear attack is the strong inclination Iran has towards Islamic Nationalism. Under no circumstance Israel can accept the nuclear proliferation as it may question its own safety and security. Israel was prepared to take unilateral military action against Iran if the international community failed to stop any development of nuclear weapons at the country’s atomic energy facilities. Fortunately or unfortunately, the international community did take up some steps against Iran.
India has been unnecessarily dragged in the situation and is under a lot of pressure due to strong support system of Israel consisting of western powers especially U.S. US has two interest in having sanctions against Iran, one is the abundant oil and gas resources Iran has and the other can be that the special status of Dollar can be threatened if a switch from Dollar to Euro is made by the oil producing countries for trade in oil and gas, which Iran may be capable of doing. If U.S can control the oil wealth of Iran, their ability to increase the price of oil will be strengthened and as a result India will be at their mercy.
India tried to practice bold diplomacy by voting against Iran in IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) in 2005 for its nuclear proliferation but chose not to stand by the recent trade sanctions passed by US on Iran in response to its continued illicit nuclear activities. This decision of India was due to strong dependence of India on Iran for its energy requirements. China and Russia were the other two major economies who ignored the US sanctions due to similar interests as that of India. But there is nothing India can do now. The situation has changed for worse. Even after India did not support the sanctions, insurance companies have now declared that the refineries which process oil that is imported from Iran will not be covered. Insurance companies have taken this decision under the fear of getting blacklisted by US and Europe. This has left the refineries with two choices: either they stop importing oil from Iran or they take huge risks buying the oil which is not covered by insurance companies. This may lead to a sharp reduction in the import of oils from Iran. This is going to prove bad for both Iran and India, as Iran loses one of the largest buyers of its oil and India needs to look at some other country to satiate its energy requirements. This may prove to be good news to Israel and US as Iran is getting into trouble from all the sides. But on the other hand this may weaken the strong ties that had been prevailing between India and Iran since long back making India lose one of the good allies.
India, in spite its efforts made on maintaining good relations with both the countries, Iran and Israel, there is a strong possibility that Indo-Iran relations are affected to a large extent. In order for Indias energy requirements not getting affected due to the strong cut in Iranian oil imports( as a result of insurance companies denying to cover the processing of the Iranian oil), it needs to carefully strategise and develop diplomatic relations with oil rich countries.
By Kruti Nair