By Shruti Sonal
By-polls scheduled to be held in the constituencies of Gorakhpur and Phulpur in Uttar Pradesh and Araria in Bihar on March 11 have once again brought to the fore the complex web of regional alliances that dominate the politics of the two states.
Conflict with Yogi
It is no surprise to those in the know that Gorakhpur constituency has seen intense discussions by the three key political playersBJP, Congress and RJDover their chosen candidates. As a longtime saffron bastion and the backyard of current Chief Minister Yoginath, the constituency carries with it immense symbolic importance.
The seat fell vacant last March when Adityanath resigned to take over as the states chief minister. BJPs chosen candidate for the upcoming elections, Upendra Shukla, however, has raised questions over Adityanaths hold over the state leadership. Shukla is widely seen as being at odds with the Chief Minister.
During Yogis time in office, Shukla remained at the margins of electoral politics due to his attempts to diminish the influence of the Gorakhnath temple in the region. According to sources, Shukla was chosen over Adityanaths favoured candidates, Chinmayanand and Swami Kamalnath, in order to project an alternative Brahmin centre of power in the state and to encourage Brahimins to support the party.
A divided opposition
Running against Shukla will be Congress Dr Suneetha and the Samajwadi Partys Praveen Kumar Nishad. The announcements of their candidacies came after the two parties decided to fight by-polls separately in UP, a move which is likely to benefit the BJP. Interestingly, the Samajwadi Party, which is contesting the Gorakhpur by-polls in alliance with Peace Party and Nishad Party, has chosen Praveen as he is the son of Nishad Party chief Sanjay Nishad.
On the other hand the Phulpur constituency, which was vacated by Adityanaths deputy Keshav Prasad Maurya, is also likely to witness an interesting electoral battle. Congress has nominated local leader Manish Mishra to contest the Phulpur parliamentary seat against BJPs candidate Kaushlendra Singh Patel, who was the former mayor of Varanasi. The Samajwadi Party has fielded Nagendra Pratap Singh Patel. In sharp contrast to the saffron bastion of Gorakhpur, Phulpur has traditionally been a Congress stronghold, having once sent Nehru to the parliament.
The RJD party as a potential spoiler
In Bihars Araria constituency, the battle may be even more interesting due to the presence of the highly unpredictable regional party Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). The seat fell vacant after the death of RJD MP Mohammad Taslimuddin in September 2017. Elections in the constituency will be shaped by RJD and Congress unique seat sharing formula under which RJD has decided to field a candidate for Araria and Congress will contest in Bhabhua.
In Araria, RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav announced that the seat will be contested by Taslimuddin’s son, Mohammad Sarfaraz Ahmad. Going up against Ahmad will be BJPs Pradeep Singh, a former Araria MP who lost to RJD’s Taslimuddin in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Thus, The Muslim-dominated Lok Sabha seat of Araria will see a direct fight between the BJP and the jailed Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Lalu Prasad.
The votes will be counted on March 14. The outcome will be interesting, not only as a test of BJPs popularity, but also as a test of the potential of regional parties to provide a check on the BJP going into to the 2019 general election.
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