Key Takeaways from the Rise of AAP in Delhi

By Ravi Aswani

So the cloud of uncertainty surrounding Delhi’s future appears to have settled down, at least for the next six months with the AAP winning the trust vote in the Delhi legislative assembly. The past year saw the meteoric rise of a party arising out of a movement against corruption and has since then taken the Delhi’s political class by storm with a bunch of amateurs being the agents of a paradigm shift in the way politics and governance have traditionally evolved. Starting from the style of campaigning to the distribution of tickets as well as formulation of manifestos and delivery of some of those promises, there have been a number of innovations which might affect the electoral dynamics of the nation in the long run. An inductive effect of the rise of the AAP across Delhi is also clearly visible in various other parties and their respective governments. The AAP movement has spelled out some much needed changes as well as a few potential threats to the democratic set-up in India.

Firstly, the Jan (Mohalla) Sabhas facilitating the direct engagement with the public has marked a return. Although, many states have had Jan Sabhas in various forms, organized regularly as a means of public welfare, it is a new feature in the urban areas. It shall emerge as a vital platform to constructively engage the populace in the decision making.  There are now efforts to bridge the gap between the leader and his electorate with promises of abolishing the VIP culture, removal of red beacons and discarding official bungalows. This new wave of simplicity, limited hitherto to only a few communist party chief ministers (Jyoti Basu, most notably) may resonate with many other Chief Ministers and MLA’s or at least the presence of a vast number of pressure groups might compel them to. This could be a blessing in disguise for the state finances as it will be a small scale austerity program in itself and at the same time, it will rid the mango people of traffic congestions as well as reduce the burden on our police forces.

Secondly, the due importance being given to the party manifesto lately has been a notable feature of these elections as usually except for a few “populist” promises, most part of a manifesto had always remained a moot point in the entire election campaign. This time around, most part of the AAP manifesto was debated and analyzed by various panel of experts and embedded into the majority public opinion. It also struck a chord with the Delhi electorate and laid the cornerstone for the party’s campaigning. Needless to state, any development on these promises will be keenly observed and could be well rewarded.

Although, a few questions can be raised on the viability of few of the promises, it would only be fair to wait till the annual budget for the next financial year in order to get a clear picture of how these subsidies are accommodated in the larger fiscal scenario. A possible threat of freebies and subsidies occupying a lead role in election propaganda needs to be checked. The state as well as the central government needs to do away with a number of subsidies in order to overcome the widening Current Account and Fiscal deficits. Subsidies have more often than not, failed to reach the target groups and have been a hotbed for institutional corruption. But, the success of AAP in these elections can be partially attributed to its promises of free water and subsidized electricity and as a result, we might see promises from other parties to lure the middle class voters in the coming elections. Surely, not a progressive sign for Indian democracy.

The third major factor has been the emergence of Anti-Corruption and Clean Image as an Electoral plank mainly because of the Jan Lokpal movement and AAP’s success only reaffirms its significance. This has the potential to create a ripple effect within other parties too. A number of parties have long fielded “Bahu-balis” or the local strongmen in order to secure a particular seat, especially in constituencies with large rural populace or exploited visible caste divides. The leaders too got elected comfortably on the basis of their local clout within their constituencies. This factor had for a very long time posed a huge threat to Indian democracy but the emergence of Anti-Corruption and Clean Image as electoral planks is a welcome change. Many parties might now, be tempted to field candidates with a relatively cleaner image. However, the acid test shall be the elections in much larger states having large rural population as well as significant caste barriers such as Uttar Pradesh.

Finally, the AAP’s minority government and the outside support to it from the Congress proves the conventional notion that an election result can lead to permutations and combinations which might have appeared unimaginable before the elections. It would however, be unfair to judge the nascent AAP-Congress combine in light of the previous alliances in various states, as the Congress support was primarily aimed to prevent the BJP from coming to power and also, one might argue, to contain the AAP movement to Delhi and prevent its spread to other parts of the country.

The next few months of AAP rule in Delhi will be crucial in order to determine its credibility as an effective government but also as a potential alternative to the Congress and BJP at the centre. The party will have to chalk out its ideology on a number of matters pertaining to Economic and Foreign policy and clarify its stand on a range of domestic issues such as Telangana, Nuclear Energy and Naxalism as they would be targeted by the opposition parties on these issues. They will face an uphill task in Delhi as well to push for reforms and fulfill its promises before the moral code of conduct comes into effect in Delhi around March, while at the same time it will have to ensure sustainable growth of its organization in other states. Sustainable because, it has now laid the ground to create a niche for itself in Indian politics and must be careful while selecting its cadre and distributing tickets that its USP is not disturbed and it does not compromise on the agenda with which it entered the mainstream polity.

The author is a Bibliophile, An argumentative Indian, A Libertarian and a Nationalist, A Proud Sindhi, God-fearing and Polytheistic Hindu, A Wannabe Economist, A Cricket lover.