By Praveen Chunduru
I’m not actually going to try and forecast what great technology will drive our lives 10 years from now. I’m just going to try and explore whether it’s possible to forecast at all.
In history, there were long periods of innovative lull, and suddenly short bursts of societal genius, when the culture of innovation was so wide-spread and the pace of technological progress so alarming, that the world of just a few years ago looked like a distant past. I think that the period between 1990 and 2010 was one such burst. These 20 years, which have produced two phenomenal innovations, the rise of the information technology (particularly, the World Wide Web and the various devices designed to access it better) and the ubiquity of telecom (mobile phones in particular), seem to be similar not to any period in the 1900s, but the period from 1875 to 1905, in which we’ve seen five great inventions: the light bulb, the telephone, the radio, the automobile, the airplane. That era (1875 to 1905), to me, remains the most productive one in human history. Compare that era to the period from 1905-1990, which produced 4 big inventions in all of 85 years – the penicillin, the transistor, the television, and the PC. You’d have to say that the 5 inventions from 1875 to 1905 play as much of a role in our lives, even today, as do the 4 inventions from 1905-1990.
I wonder, now that we’ve completed 20 years of great technological progress, are we in for a slowdown? The fact that the Company that defined innovation over the past 15 years, Apple, produced its latest great innovation in 2009 (the iPad), that electric cars aren’t gaining much traction, that nuclear power is on the wane rather than on the rise, the trend seems to be a worrying one.
However, I believe that innovation hasn’t slowed. It has just changed. We tend to place much more value on products than processes. Think of Amazon – what amazing product has it produced? Kindle won’t be remembered 100 years from now. But has it changed the world? Absolutely. It has perfected the combination of the World Wide Web and advanced supply chains to bring the right products to customers’ footsteps at a quick pace and at a low price. Similarly, companies like Ebay are allowing people in remote corners of the world to reach out to a global market for consumer goods. We are seeing the rise of financial systems that are ever more inclusive of those at the bottom of the pyramid – the rise of micro-credit is bringing hundreds of millions out of poverty each year. Hydraulic fracking provides access to energy reserves that we couldn’t dream of tapping into 10 years ago. Companies like Twitter have become agents of democracy, and companies like Square promise to revolutionize the way buying and selling is done. Further, world-class education is becoming increasingly free, thanks to pioneers like Salman Khan, Founder, Khan Academy. Every sphere of the world, in short, is becoming more inclusive.
So when we think of innovations, we would be mistaken to look only at unbelievable products and ignore the processes that better them or make them more accessible. One of the biggest successes of the 20th century was building business models around, and figuring out new ways to proliferate, those inventions that came about between 1875 and 1905. Maybe now, we’re once again moving from a phase of making amazing new products to a phase of distributing them to the world, better.
Presently employed as an Investment Analyst with International Finance Corporation. His biggest hobby is writing. Dreams to write for The Economist, his favourite magazine. In TIE, he tries to focus on writing from experience and observation than from research. He hopes that you find his articles convincing sometimes, disagreeable sometimes, but thought-provoking and enjoyable, always. Email Id: p6blue@gmail.com.