India’s GDP growth for 2023-24 estimated at 7.3%, experts predict 6.5-7%

India’s economy is poised to showcase strong growth, with a projected expansion of 7.3 per cent in the current fiscal year ending in March, according to the first advance estimates of annual gross domestic product (GDP) released by the National Statistics Office (NSO).

‘The growth in real GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 7.3 per cent as compared to 7.2 per cent in 2022-23,’ according to the NSO.

Fuelled by increased state spending and a notable uptick in manufacturing activities, India can expect to remain at the top of the list when it comes to the world’s fastest growing economies. Proactive measures taken by the Indian government, especially on key infrastructure projects, will also drive this growth.

The outlook aligns with the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) recent adjustment of its growth forecast, upgrading it to 7 per cent from the earlier estimate of 6.5 per cent.

The central bank’s revised projection was indicative of India’s favourable economic conditions and positive trends in various sectors.

India’s strong performance in the September quarter, where the economy grew at a faster-than-expected rate of 7.6 per cent year-on-year, has increased confidence in its ability to maintain this strong growth trajectory.

With 7.8 per cent growth in the previous quarter, economists are optimistic in their yearly estimates in anticipation of more sustained economic momentum in the next four quarters.

Despite global economic uncertainties and challenges, S&P Global Ratings anticipates India to retain its position as the fastest-growing major economy over the next three years, projecting it to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030.

While the global economy continues to evolve and change dynamics, India’s ability to outpace its counterparts reflects a combination of prudent fiscal policies, strategic investments, and a resilient domestic market.

The advanced estimate arrives ahead of the interim budget of 2024-25, which is due to be tabled on February 1.

The finance ministry will rely on this projection to craft various targets for the next fiscal, including fiscal deficit targets and tax collection growth.

The finance ministry’s initial assumption for 2023-24’s nominal GDP growth was 10.5 per cent. However, the statistics ministry’s early projection suggests a potential 8.9 per cent growth for India’s GDP in nominal terms this fiscal year.

Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices is estimated at INRs 296.58 lakh crore against the provisional estimate for 2022-23 of INR 72.41 lakh crore, an increase of 8.9 per cent.

Piyush Goyal remains optimistic about $2 trillion export target

Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Saturday expressed optimism that the country will meet its ambitious USD 2 trillion export target by 2030, notwithstanding geopolitical headwinds and inflationary concerns.

Speaking at the inauguration of the ‘Patsan Bhavan,’ which houses the Jute Commissioner’s office and headquarters of Jute Corporation of India and National Jute Board, in New Town, Kolkata, Goyal acknowledged the challenging global situation.

Goyal cited the Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas conflict and tensions in the Red Sea as factors impacting trade.

‘To address low food grain production and curb domestic inflation, we have implemented restrictions. However, despite all these challenges, India’s exports will continue to grow, aiming at reaching USD 2 trillion by 2030 from the current USD 770-775 billion,’ Goyal said.

Goyal highlighted the potential of the jute industry in particular, stating that with ‘contribution from the jute sector and concerted efforts from the Centre and state governments, we can achieve new heights.’

India currently exports around INR 1,500 crore worth of jute. Goyal, who also holds the portfolios of textiles and consumer affairs, food and public distribution, urged industry players to increase this number.

Goyal also asked the jute sector to showcase products at the upcoming Bharat Tex 2024, the world’s biggest-ever textiles event, to be organized from February 26-29 in New Delhi.


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