James Sullivan, the Managing Director of Asia Pacific Equity Research at JPMorgan sees Indian economy doubling to $7 trillion by 2030, according to a CNBC TV18 report
Sullivan sees India becoming the world’s third-largest economy by 2027, with its GDP more than doubling to $7 trillion by 2030.
‘I would argue very strong long-term tactical drivers that make India a key overweight from a structural perspective from JPMorgan,’ Sullivan said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
Sullivan expects the manufacturing contribution to India’s GDP to rise to nearly 25% from 17% and exports to more than double, to over a trillion dollars.
‘From a longer-term perspective, we see massive changes in the overall structure of the Indian economy, which present clear opportunities for sector selection within what we think will be a strong overall market,’ he observed.
Sullivan is also bullish on China with an ‘overweight’ rating.
China may be at an inflection point in its economic growth, as it saw a below-average earnings revision in China, a trend not seen since 2005.
‘In China, we are very focused on specific sectors, if we can focus in line with government policy, if we can focus on deeply beaten down sectors that offer significant valuation support, then we see opportunity. So, it’s a slightly different portfolio allocation strategy in each market,’ he said.
There are indications that China is contemplating a boost in its 2023 budget deficit with the issuance of at least a trillion yuan, equivalent to $137 billion, in additional government debt, with the aim of channelling these funds into infrastructure projects.
Reports also suggest that China is exploring setting up a stock stabilisation fund to bolster investor confidence within the stock market.
The government’s investments could potentially be complemented by other collaborating funds and institutions, according to a Financial Times report.