A massive cyclonic formation over the south of Bay of Bengal, named Fani, is expected to make landfall in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh over the coming days, according to a bulletin by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). This has put disaster response forces on high alert in the southern states.
The low-pressure system is headed straight for Sri Lanka over the next 96 hours, then turning north-west towards the southern Indian states. In light of this, the IMD has issued a red alert for areas in and around coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Chennai, which had narrowly averted the wrath of Cyclone Pethai last year, lies directly in the eye of this storm.
According to Mahesh Palawat, who works at Skymet Weather, hot winds from the northeast are expected to blow over Mumbai and adjoining areas in Maharashtra. Dust storms are likely to occur in Rajasthan as an impact, heatwave in Madhya Pradesh could follow.
Several weather-monitoring agencies have sounded a warning that the cyclonic storm will intensify from Saturday evening, with varying levels of precipitation in each state, and expected wind speeds of up to 80-100 km/hour.
The intensity of the oncoming storm has put the state governments and the Disaster Response Forces on alert, while warnings have been issued for civilians.
On course
On April 26, IMD notified the government, fisherfolk, and general public of Tamil Nadu that a low-pressure area had formed over east equatorial Indian Ocean and the adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal, slowly becoming a well-marked, low-pressure area. This will likely cause it to intensify further into a deep depression, and then a cyclonic storm over the subsequent 12 hours, said the weather bulletin later tweeted by the Tamil Nadu State Disaster Management Authority (TNSDMA).
“The system will move northwest and reach near north Tamil Nadu coast there are chances of heavy rains in isolated places in north Tamil Nadu, S Balachandran, Deputy Director in Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai, told the reporters on Friday.
At 8.30 AM Friday, the depression was 1140 southeast of Sri Lankas Trincomalee. It was located around within 2000km of Chennai and south-southeast of Andhra Pradesh Friday afternoon.
The system is expected to bring moderate to heavy rain along the northern coast of Tamil Nadu on April 30 and May 1, and over Kerala on April 29 and 30. Then the cyclone will backtrack slightly and head up the coastline of Andhra Pradesh.
Following a day of light to moderate rainfall over south coastal Andhra Pradesh, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over isolated places over on May 1.
Puducherry is also expected to get heavy rain during the next few days. Territorial Chief Minister V Narayanasamy held discussions with officials of various departments, including Revenue and Disaster Management, to brace up preparedness after the alert was sounded.
Caution and preparation
With wind speeds expected to blow at 115 km/hour over southwest Bay of Bengal, off Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts on April 29, authorities have advised fishermen not to venture into the Indian Ocean, and the Bay of Bengal through April 25-30.
Last year in November, Cyclone Ockhi had hit parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka. The cyclone killed over 80 fishermen in Kerala. Around 140 people were reported missing.
In November 2018, Cyclone Gaja made landfall in Nagapattinams Vedaranyam block and killed around 46 people.
Are cyclones becoming more common because of climate change?
While atmospheric scientists still don’t hold a definitive answer to that, the increasing instances of devastating and successive cyclones along with the global rise of temperatures of oceanic waters have led many to conjecture that the two may be related.
Feeding this theory is the fact that hurricanes draw their energy from deep below the oceans surface, which recorded its highest temperature in 2017, thus implying that hurricanes have become more likely as climate change continues to warm the waters.
A recent MIT study also posited that climate change which is constantly moving the energy in the air may also be prompting stronger thunderstorms in the Northern Hemisphere, including India. Extratropical hurricanes or cyclones feed off the horizontal temperature gradient of the atmosphere (difference in normal temperatures among northern and southern latitudes).
Atlantic and Pacific storms have demonstrated a lethal trend of worsening both in length and intensity since the twentieth century, now dumping historic volumes of rain to submerge entire cities — painting a dismal picture especially when poorer nations suffer the brunt of natural disasters like the Category 5 Hurricane Maria which left 2,975 dead in Puerto Rico last year, and the more recent Cyclone Idai which has left most of Mozambique devastatedand revealing the fundamental injustice at the heart of climate change.
Situation in South Asia
But Indian Ocean formations have also staged destruction of large scale multiple times over the last five years in India itself. But a greater concern is for poorer Asian nations as they become repeated targets of climatic onslaughts, and consequently look to regional powers to lend a hand in rescue (cyclones are expensive) or offer a home to displaced victims.
Climate change will displace as many as 40 million people in South Asia by 2050, according to studies. Experts, however, believe that India is grossly underprepared for this influx. It also has its own climate refugee problems to deal with.
Cyclone Aila (2009) had reportedly triggered the migration of nearly a million families from the Sundarbans over the last decade, driving them in search of work, particularly to Kerala. But the devastating flood in the southern state last year engineered a reverse migration as thousands started to return to their native villages as Kerala’s construction sector crashed sharply.
With increasing regularity must come greater preparedness
Climate change-triggered mass migration is real and new data suggests that hurricanes could become stronger, slower and wetter in the future.
But there is an eminent lack of data and policies on preparedness, especially in India. While a lot of it is beyond human control, the blow can still be cushioned with smart and timely preparations like evacuating coastal areas before landfall, encouraging farmers to practise the more profitable integrated farming techniques, building cyclone-proof infrastructure, to name a few.
Without comprehensive plans to adapt to climate change, humankind is looking down the barrel of the end of another civilisation, led by climate change.
Also read: Extinction Rebellion has begun, which side of history will you be on?
Prarthana Mitra is a Staff Writer at Qrius