By Mahasweta Muthusubbarayan
US President Donald Trumps New Year message to Pakistan was less than warm, accusing the US ally of ‘lies and deceit’ and harbouring terrorists. The confrontational message is a continuation of a new chapter in the US-Pak relations which began in the second half of last year, indicating a potential policy shift in the US stance on Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The confrontation
President Trump just cranked up his recent verbal criticisms for Pakistan by a notch, by tweeting, The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!
The confrontation revolves entirely around Afghanistan. It originally began in August 2017, when President Trump announced his new policy on Afghanistan. He declared that the US security interests are the most paramount consideration in framing any policy. He pointed out that 20 US-terrorist designated organisations are active in Afghanistan and Pakistan. He stated, Pakistan often gives safe haven to agents of chaos, violence and terror. He further vowed to stop the resurgence of these so-called terrorist safe havens in Afghanistan and Pakistan and gave his troops the right to carry out operations however they pleased. Thus began the recent souring of the US-Pak relations.
Unanimous sentiments
After this, a number of senior administrators from President Trumps government echoed similar sentiments during a few of their official/diplomatic speeches. The most noticeable was Vice-President Mike Pences statement to American troops in Kabul that Pakistan had been put on notice by President Trump. Lisa Curtis, the US National Security Councils senior director for South and Central Asia, had also called for stripping of Pakistans status as a major non-NATO ally if it does not show commitment to Americas counter-terrorism goals. Pakistans National Assembly promptly passed a resolution that the statements of the US President and his senior administrators were hostile and threatening.
The FMF package dispute
In early December 2017, senior officials from the Trump administration held a meeting to debate the withholding of USD 255 million in aid to Pakistan. This happened after the US President continuously expressed dissatisfaction with Pakistans efforts to counter terrorist groups operating out of its soil. The USD 255 million in question is a part of the original US Foreign Military Financing (FMF) package promised to Pakistan for the financial year 2016. In August 2017, the US State Department had notified the Congress that it was attaching conditions to the 255 million dollars aid. The prime condition was that Pakistan had to intensify its crackdown on internal terror networks attacking Afghanistan.
The Trump administration has of late been very vocal in insisting that Pakistan should be more aggressive in tackling the Taliban and its affiliate, the Haqqani. While laying out the revised US National Security Strategy, Trump warned the country that it has a lot to lose if it failed to cooperate. The US apparently feels that while Pakistan effectively eliminates threats to its own soil, it does not take sufficient action against the Afghan Taliban which attacks the US troops in Afghanistan. As a US ally, Pakistan is responsible for patrolling and monitoring the Afghan border to check the cross-border movement of the Taliban. This is intended to help both the Afghan government as well as to safeguard the US soldiers in Afghanistan.
Other disputes
US discontent was further fanned by Pakistans refusal to provide the US with access to one of the Haqqani abductors of an American-Canadian couple and their children who were freed earlier last year. The US is hopeful that the Haqqani militant can provide information about two of its citizens who went missing in Afghanistan. However, the Pakistani military for its part never mentioned a captured Haqqani militant.
Another bone of contention was the release of Hafiz Saeed of the Jamaat-ud-Dawa from house arrest in November. He carries a US bounty of ten million dollars on his head but has continued to live freely and fearlessly in Pakistan. He has made a visible return to political and social life after his release. This seems to be in line with Trumps accusation that the country harbours terrorists being hunted by the US.
Pakistan’s response
When news broke out that the US was contemplating withholding the FMF aid, Pakistan denied that it was not doing enough to fight armed groups. It stated that it would continue to fight armed groups in the region to serve its self-interest, rather than at the behest of other countries. It also warned the US against taking unilateral action against armed terror groups on its soil. In the past, the US has shown a propensity for neutralising its enemies in Pakistans soil, the most high-profile of these operations being the killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad. Pakistan was sending out a veiled message that it does not have any intention of dancing to US tunes and that it would not appreciate any US high-handedness. President Trumps New Year tweet was probably a reaction to its failure to respond favourably to US demands. The final call on cuts in Pakistans funding is to be taken in a few weeks. Afghanistan itself has praised the hardening of Trumps stance and stated that it is a result of its own successful policy.
The tweet and consequent reactions
Trumps tweet caused an emergency meeting of Pakistans National Security Council, which consists of senior civilian and military leaders. David Hale, the US Ambassador to Islamabad was summoned by the Ministry of External Affairs. President Trumps tweet was later officially dismissed as being incomprehensible and of no importance, but disappointment was expressed over his statements. Pakistan was certainly not pleased with the figures quoted by Trump and pointed out that 14 billion dollars of the total 33 billion dollars went to the Coalition Support Fund (CSF) which reimburses Pakistan for patrolling the Afghan border. Pakistan also pointed out that it is yet to receive eight billion dollars under the CSF. It also emphasised that the sum promised under the FMF package is only a small fraction of its GDP and therefore not of much consequence. Nonetheless, Pakistan took baby steps after the tweet, prohibiting Hafiz Saeeds Jamaat-ud-Dawa from collecting donations.
Pakistan received strong support from China, which lauded Pakistan for its sacrifices for the sake of international counter-terrorism and called upon the international community to recognize this. China and Pakistan are allies in the Belt and Road initiative and China had declared itself and Pakistan as all-weather partners last year.
As for India, Minister of State Jitendra Singh said that Trump had abundantly vindicated India’s stand regarding the role of Pakistan in perpetrating terrorism.
Prevailing uncertainty
Despite Trumps bashing, Pakistan has vowed continued commitment to an Afghan-led and owned Peace Process. There are many in Pakistan, including citizens, who feel that the US is blaming them because of its own failures, without understanding the ground reality. Trumps tweet drew angry protests in Karachi. Pakistans military apparently feels the need to curb cross-border infiltration and to repatriate the Afghan refugees in Pakistan as Taliban militants hide in their settlement camps. However, there are also some prominent yesteryear diplomats who feel that Pakistan needs to alter its narrative and work on its shortcomings.
US-Pak relations have seen many dips and revivals over the years and the US is unlikely to ever go to the extent of removing Pakistan as a major ally. Recent events have made it clear that a diplomatic tussle is on the cards but it is unclear whether President Trumps tweet was meant to herald a change in policy.
Featured Image Source: Gage Skidmore on Visualhunt / CC BY-SA