With its Union Budget, BJP has sounded the bugle for the next general elections

By Saarthak Anand

When finance minister Arun Jaitley got up to present the Union Budget for 2018-19, few were expecting it to be a routine one. This was the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government’s last full budget prior to the Lok Sabha elections next year. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government having come under scrutiny due to their lacklustre economic performance, the stakes were high. As Mr. Jaitley concluded his speech it was all too evident that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is now in election mode.

While it is true that the overall policies of a regime over its full term are what contain the most political significance, the budget does serve as an efficient indicator of the government’s priorities and the direction it is going to take in the following year as the general elections come along. Moreover, it provides the ruling party with a unique opportunity to take control of the political discourse through various announcements and schemes.

The results of the recent Gujarat polls, where the BJP gave a lacklustre performance in rural regions, have not gone unnoticed in New Delhi. Furthermore, there was a series of farmer protests across the nation in the previous year. Hence it is not so surprising that the budget is more generous towards farming and village populations than previous ones presented by this government. A return of 50% over the cost of production has been promised to the farmers. In addition, Rs. 14 lakh crore have been earmarked for the development of rural infrastructure which, if implemented in the right manner, has the potential to go a long way to create rural employment.

For the backward sections

Throughout its term at the Centre, the BJP has been making attempts to woo marginalised sections, particularly the Scheduled Castesm (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST), who hold considerable sway over a large number of seats nationwide. Traditionally seen as a party of the upper castes, this outreach is part of a broader strategy by the BJP to turn its voter base on its head.

The Budget is yet another step in this direction. With a 12% increase, the budgetary allocation towards SC and ST welfare has been set at an unprecedented Rs. 95,000 crore. In addition, the Finance Minister announced that by 2022, every block with more than 50% ST population and at least 20,000 tribal people will have an Eklavya Model Residential School. These provisions might turn out to be important in the run-up to 2019, especially as the BJP’s image has taken a hit among the backward castes, who have faced a string of attacks in recent times.

In a major departure from budget speeches in the past, this year’s had much to say on the subject of health, a subject woefully neglected thus far. The National Health Protection Scheme (NHPS), or Modicare as many are calling it, promises an annual Rs. 5 lakh per family for secondary and tertiary hospitalisation. This greatly exceedes in scope and ambition any health scheme introduced in the nation before. The aim is to cover 10 crore families through this scheme. With a year to go before the next Lok Sabha elections, this scheme carries with it the potential to change the political narrative.

While the bold print may emphasise the political relevance of NHPS, there is still a good possibility of overstating this. What matters equally is the scheme’s implementation and whether the intended beneficiaries are actually able to avail themselves of the promised facilities. The budget is largely silent on the question of funding for the scheme. Such an ambitious measure requires a substantial monetary allocation, but the total health outlay has been increased only marginally.

BJP risks losing the base

One cannot help but wonder if, with all the attempts to court previously untapped segments of the population, the PM is taking his core backers for granted. The urban middle class, which has solidly stood by the BJP, has been given a cold shoulder in this budget. While there was minor relief for the salaried class in the form of a standard deduction of Rs. 40,000—in lieu of a transport allowance and medical reimbursement—it was more than offset by an increase in the cess. The BJP would do well to keep in mind that it can ill-afford to antagonise its strongest supporters. An urban sweep was the sole reason that the party managed to hold on to Gujarat despite widespread rural discontent.

The need for BJP to take control of the political narrative is quite evident. Even as the budget was being presented, the Indian National Congress swept by-polls in Rajasthan, where it had taken the BJP on directly. The BJP lost both the Lok Sabha seats in Alwar and Ajmer, as well as a Mandalgarh Assembly seat. While Narendra Modi remains the most popular politician in the country, his party and government clearly do not enjoy the same level of support as in 2014, when the saffron party had grabbed all of the state’s 25 Lok Sabha constituencies.

The amount of impact the budget eventually has on correcting the situation for the BJP will be seen in the results of the Assembly polls due later this year. Besides the upcoming elections in three North-Eastern states—Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland—polls in Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhatisgarh will see the BJP locked in direct contests with its national rival.

Build-up to the next general elections

The present government, like many before it, has come to realise that trickle-down economics might not make for good politics in India. The BJP certainly remembers the failure of the ‘India Shining’ campaign in 2004, when the Vajpayee government endured a shock defeat despite an impressive macroeconomic performance. This is precisely why the focus has shifted towards economic inclusion and social justice, with the PM lending his name to the latest health scheme.

“The Prime Minister is not in for momentary populism. This budget has two items which have a huge social impact—per cent over and above cost as far as the farmer is concerned and healthcare or Modicare. This is a part of the Prime Minister’s philosophy,” Jaitley said in an interview to Doordarshan. “We are all very worried about farmers and are working to double their income. We need to work on rural roads, toilets, electricity, health for the poor and work on giving the farmer a good price for the produce”. The countdown to the next Lok Sabha elections has undoubtedly begun.

Featured Image Source: Flickr