A review of Modi’s performance as the Indian Prime Minister

By Saarthak Anand

When Narendra Modi led his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to a landslide victory in 2014, international response was varied. While some were sceptical about the ability of the “Hindu nationalists” to govern a diverse nation, others welcomed the emergence of a strong leader who had the potential to get the economy back on track. With the Modi administration well into its fourth year, the opinion continues to be divided.

Two of the most significant criterions used to analyse the performance of a government on a global scale is foreign policy and the economy. Modi took over an economy which had seen investment and growth wane over the previous three years, owing in part to the perception of an inefficient and corrupt Central government. Major reforms were expected, and the target was to open the economy.

It is generally believed that BJP-led governments are more conducive to a favourable investment climate. Modi’s sweeping victory of 2014 wherein a single party won a Lok Sabha majority for the first time in 30 years injected a great deal of optimism among potential investors. Modi had campaigned on a platform showcasing his governance record in Gujarat—called the “Gujarat model”. Many believed that the high growth seen in Gujarat would be replicated on a national scale under Modi.

Disappointing economic performance

India offers a lucrative market for multinationals, who aspire to gain from a middle-class expansion akin to the one witnessed in China in the recent past. Some of them, who had missed the bus in China, or were not allowed to enter, are now looking towards India. Amazon has decided to invest $5 billion, while companies such as Uber and Netflix are expanding operations.

However, the euphoria generated in 2014 has hardly converted into results. Reform has been piecemeal, while disruptive moves such as the controversial demonetisation in 2016 had an adverse impact on consumer spending and business. The Goods and Services Tax (GST)—hailed as a game-changer, has seen a shoddy implementation. ‘Make in India’ has failed to live up to expectations. Major irritants to investors, such as rigid labour laws, are nowhere close to being addressed. The banking crisis continues to haunt the economy, which experienced a significant drop in growth rate in 2017.

Positive diplomacy and an aggressive military

Under the Modi regime, there has been a newfound assertiveness in foreign policy, combined with diligent alliance-building efforts. Even before the formal beginning of his tenure, Modi amazed many with some unconventional diplomacy when leaders of eight neighbouring nations were invited for his swearing-in ceremony. Modi has proven critics wrong by staying away from the hard-line nationalist image that was projected of him in certain circles. This lies in stark contrast to the line adopted by US President Donald Trump. Instead, PM Modi has embarked on ambitious diplomatic efforts and groundbreaking foreign visits. To counter an ascending China, India has been playing a crucial role in the advancement of the quadrilateral—a group including India, US, Japan and Australia in the Indo-Pacific region. At the same time, tensions on the borders have only intensified.

Competition with China

It can be reasonably argued that the nation with the greatest stake in Indian politics is its aggressive neighbour China. Relations between the two rapidly growing countries have been anything but cordial over the past few decades and under the NDA regime, they have only taken a turn for the worse. The previous year saw the communist regime witness an assertive India which was unlike anything it had faced in the past. In June, India stood up for Bhutan when the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China tried to construct a road near the tri-junction between Sikkim and the Chumbi valley in Tibet. However, India intervened only to protect its own interests, as the proposed road would have threatened the connectivity between the North-Eastern states and the rest of the country. It was only after the “expeditious disengagement of border personnel at the face-off site in Doklam”, as per the press release by the Ministry of External Affairs, that the 71-day crisis fizzled out.

This was a major victory for India, as it had been able to look the ‘Dragon’ in the eye, something the communist dispensation was not used to. The situation, however, is far from having been resolved; more than a thousand Chinese soldiers continue to be stationed a few hundred metres from the disputed site. Barely a month after the disengagement, the Chinese set about building a road along the Sikkim border, less than 10 kilometres from the site of the Doklam conflict.

Beijing continues to view New Delhi with distrust, as is evident from the sharp rhetoric published regularly in the ‘Global Times’, which is considered a mouthpiece of the government. Both nations, however, do realise that the solution between the two nuclear-armed nations is not going to be a military one. It is only through active diplomacy and political engagement that the two sides will coexist in an amicable manner, all the differences notwithstanding.

Indo-Pak relations in disarray

Few could resist hopes of a new dawn in relations between the two nations when Modi invited the then Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to his swearing-in ceremony in 2014. Such beliefs were further strengthened when the Indian PM paid a surprise visit to Lahore in 2015 on Sharif’s birthday. This has, however, proven to be a little more than wishful thinking. Recent times have seen relations take a nosedive.

The Pathankot and Uri attacks in 2016 were followed by suspension of talks between the two sides, along with an Indian attempt to isolate Pakistan on the international stage. In a major diplomatic victory for India, Pakistan was forced to postpone the 19^th SAARC Summit after five-member countries, led by India, decided to boycott the event in the aftermath of the Uri attack. Additionally, in an unprecedented move, the Indian government struck Pakistan where it is considered most vulnerable; issues such as the human-rights violations in Balochistan, and the Indus Water Treaty were raised. The biggest surprise came ten days after the Uri attack when the world woke up to the news that Indian forces had crossed the Line of Control (LoC) to enter Pakistan-occupied Kashmir for conducting special ‘surgical strikes’. These strikes were launched against militant launch-pads and inflicted at least thirty casualties.

However, the “paradigm shift” that the Indian government had hoped to cause with these strikes failed to occur. Pakistan remains undeterred, if anything, the situation has only taken a turn for the worse. The number of ceasefire violations doubled in 2017, which has threatened the lives of soldiers and civilians daily, with no end in sight.

Better compatibility with the Trump administration

A stronger New Delhi lies in the interests of the United States, which is becoming highly uncomfortable by the nimble rise of China. India can prove to be an effective counterweight against the China-Pakistan alliance, which is why Modi government’s Pakistan policy has largely been able to find Washington’s backing. President Donald Trump’s first year in office provided India with reason to cheer. The US government has pushed Pakistan to take action against terrorist networks, most of which pose the greatest threat to India. Earlier this month, the US State Department announced that it is suspending the US $2 billion worth of security aid to Pakistan until Islamabad strictly acts against the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani terror groups. This followed President Trump’s vengeful tweet, as he accused the Islamic Republic of misleading the US with “lies and deceit”.

What about other parties?

While an NDA victory in 2019 would imply a welcome continuity for countries such as the US and Israel, neighbours such as Nepal, China and Pakistan may not be as pleased. Moreover, it is not clear whether other administrations would be willing—or capable—of maintaining the same level of diplomatic engagement that the Modi government has been able to. However, it must be added that Rahul Gandhi, the president of the principal opposition party, has begun to display a greater propensity to interact with global leaders and get involved on an international scale. On the other hand, PM Modi has already established a global standing, while Gandhi continues to have the reputation of a mercurial leader despite his recent efforts.

On the economic front, memories of UPA-2 continue to occupy the minds of people—in India and abroad. Even with NDA’s lacklustre performance, heavy foreign investment has been forthcoming.  Most of the opposition parties have a perception of socialism attached to them, which might deter foreign giants. Inadequacies of his administration notwithstanding, Modi continues to be chosen as the safest bet for the international community, but this may also owe significantly to the lack of any other popular alternative. With signs of a resurgent opposition, it remains to be seen just how much this situation changes before the next Lok Sabha Elections begin.

Featured Image Source: Wikimedia Commons