By Anirudh Singla
With the fourth phase of Uttar Pradesh assembly elections looming large, it is imperative to analyse the Rashtriya Lok Dal’s strengths and weaknesses, given that it is a party that has the potential to turn the tides in these elections.
[su_pullquote]With the Muzzafarnagar riots having combined with lawlessness in western UP to create havoc and violence, the RLD has lost its popular support base: the Muslims and Jats.[/su_pullquote]
After narrowly escaping oblivion in the 2012 UP assembly elections and drawing a blank in the 2014 general elections, Ajit Singhs Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) faces tough choices in UP’s polarised electoral landscape. With the Muzzafarnagar riots having combined with lawlessness in western UP to create havoc and violence, the RLD has lost its popular support base: the Muslims and Jats. Jayant Chaudhary (Ajit Singh’s son) is leaving no stone unturned to help the RLD create an impact in these elections by initiating reforms and trying to give the party a new edge.
Be RLD’s pride, not BJP’s tail
Because of the Jat community’s misgivings with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the RLD is positioned as a popular third option in the UP assembly elections. With the Jats forming a significant proportion of the population in 19 western UP districts, the key to 90 assembly seats lies with this vote bank. Aiming to acquire support from this dwindling vote base, Jayant Chaudharys craftily worded speeches are full of sarcastic jibes and rhetorical slogans targeted at the Jats. One of them in particular stands out: “BJP ki pooch nahi, RLD ki mooch bano” (instead of being the BJPs tail, be the RLDs pride).
Rashtriya Lok Dal General Secretary, Jayant Chaudhary, addressing a press conference on Wednesday. | Photo Courtesy: Daily AminRLDs role in altering the political dynamics
With the fourth phase of the polls drawing close, RLDs role in altering the dynamics of UP politics is significant. For the BJP, threats from single-party organisations do not affect their association as much as a united front against them.
After the Bihar assembly elections debacle, the BJP cannot hope to bank on the Modi Wave alone.
Ajit Singhs RLD may not be one of the heavy-weights, but it sure has the decisive ability to cast a shadow on the winning chances of other parties.
Further, one must not forget that during UPA II rule, Ajit Singh played a pivotal role in getting the Jats enumerated in the Other Backward Classes (OBC) category with the help of only five seats in power. So any underestimation of RLDs abilities to swing votes in their favour or create a meaningful impact would prove unwise.
It will be a monumental task beating the other major contenders for RLD. | Photo Courtesy: South LiveVying for an effective comeback
From 3.7% in 2007 to 2.33% in 2012, the RLDs share in total votes cast in UP has declined. But many speculate that the RLD may make an effective comeback this year, either in terms of winning over the Jats or dividing the vote shares of other prominent parties and coalitions like the BJP and SP-UPA alliance.