By Tushar Singh
On 5 October, Delhi will see a march from Mandi House to Jantar Mantar against ‘right-wing fascism’. Triggered by the murder of Gauri Lankesh and several counts of violence by gau rakshaks, the march will see civil society groups, trade unions and more importantly, two rival political partiesthe AAP and Swaraj Abhiyancome together on one platform. The forum has called itself a ‘democratic coalition to rescue democracy’. How often have we heard these terms since 2014 from the mouths of the opposition? We heard them before the Bihar elections. We heard them during the Bengal elections. We also heard them during the Uttar Pradesh elections. More importantly, how often has India seen two or more rival political parties come together, to ‘protect’ democracy?
Models to bring opposition together
Ever since 2014, the process to form a United Opposition has been underway. Politics is all about personal gain and the formation (and attempts thereof) of several unlikely alliances or mahagathbandhans in the past three years are a testimony to the statement. Ever since Congress was crushed in 2014, it has been looking to unite the opposition under one umbrella to overthrow BJP. Doing away with euphemism, we need to ask ourselves whether a united opposition can fight the so-called right winged fascism, in other words, the RSS/BJP duo.
Prior experience tells us that the election result for a Grand Coalition brokered by the Congress can be summarised by three models.
The Bihar Model: There is a close contest but the Grand Coalition comes into power, despite BJP being the single largest party by vote share, due to prudent strategies of constituency sharing (read: Prashant Kishore). However, the alliance breaks down before even completing half the term. As we saw in Bihar, there were always some disagreements between the JD(U) and the RJD with respect to the allotment of cabinet portfolios and as to how to govern (or not govern at all) the state which ultimately resulted in Nitish Kumar leaving the mahagathbandhan.
The Uttar Pradesh Model: BJP wins anyway. The stage was set for the Grand Coalition, this time between Congress and SP, to repeat its success in Bihar. However, there are things which you just cannot avoid. The saffron fever had taken over Uttar Pradesh and BJP won 325 seats out of a possible 403 with the SP + INC coalition restricted to 54.
The yet-to-take-place model: The Grand Coalition, with Congress at its core, wins the election. Essentially what the INC wants in 2019, a major Rahul Gandhi victory is still non-existent. However, it does not take away the fact that it cannot take place. The propensity of the INC to succeed in 2019 has certainly increased after the economic crisis in India has become apparent. Add to it the un-secular tag which the INC constantly tries to attach onto the BJP.
Therefore, this third model, which does not exist in real life yet (notwithstanding the upcoming Assembly elections) depends on a few factors which should be considered.
A matter of regional parties
A number of strong regional parties still exist in India, especially in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu where both BJP and Congress find it difficult to win votes. Even though Congress formed an ‘understanding’ with the CPI(M) before Bengal elections, which both sides claimed will continue up till 2019, to defeat Mamata Banerjee, TMC will in all probability side with the Congress if the matter comes down to forming a government. Mamatawhose TMC has previously been a part of UPAattended the Anti-BJP rally in Patna in August called by Lalu Prasad Yadav. Leaders of as many as 21 political parties participated in the rally called after Nitish Kumar withdrew from the grand coalition. BJP bhagao, Desh bachao (Oust BJP, save the country) was the theme of the rally.
The problem for Congress begins in Tamil Nadu. AIADMK has been controlling the state for six years but the Congress is in a coalition with the opposition DMK. If AIADMK lends support to the BJP, NDA essentially is guaranteed a huge number of seats in a state in which it lacks penetration. The AIADMK will certainly join the NDA. It is only a matter of time. And when it joins the NDA, then it is natural that it will also join the government, said a BJP leader, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in August. Also, Tamil Nadu is a state where actors like MGR and Jayalalitha have gone on to become extremely popular politicians. Rajnikanth and Kamal Hassan are rumoured to join politics by either forming a new political party or joining an existing one. If anyone of them lends support to the NDA or joins AIADMK which in turn supports the NDA, INC will be in deep trouble as it will risk losing out on a state with 39 seats (Congress managed to win only five more in 2014).
Unfortunately, it’s Rahul Gandhi
The next factor is Rahul Gandhi. The success of Rahul Gandhi, unfortunately, also depends on Rahul Gandhi. BJP, be it the national or state elections, always makes it a point to make the election a vote for or against Modi debate. BJP has always used the cult that Narendra Modi is to win elections. In fact, it seems the only way to beat BJP is to beat the persona of Narendra Modi. The only electoral shock for the BJP came in the Delhi assembly elections when AAP won 67 out of 70 seats as the cult of Arvind Kejriwal became more popular than Narendra Modi. Therefore, to become PM, Rahul has to beat Modi one-on-one, which given the historical evidence seems largely impossible.
Rahul does not have the rhetorical element, eloquence or humour which Modi has in his speeches. Modis approval ratings are one of the highest in the world and his personality is one of the reasons why the demonetisation exercise was carried out in peace. The fact the INC needs a grand coalition is a de facto acceptance on behalf of the Congress that Rahul Gandhi is not competent enough to fight Modi alone. Social media plays a major role in developing a persona as well, and unfortunately, Congress cannot control that. Even though INC is trying to revive Rahuls image, be it his interactions in the USA or elevating him to the post of the Congress President after Diwali, it only has a year left to clear half a decades mess.
Like water
The proponents of a Grand Coalition state that it is like water- it can take any shape according to the situation. However, as we saw what happened in Bihar, it becomes rigid once it is in power. Too many cooks spoil the broth. Therefore, the grand coalition faces hurdles- one is to beat the BJP in the first place and second is to remain in power. To remain in power, it needs a mutually acceptable leader. Nitish Kumar could have been that face but now he is in the NDA camp. Rahul Gandhi still needs training. There is no other major alternative at least till Sonia Gandhi controls the strings.
However, irrespective of whether all political parties gel together or not, it is probably the only way to stop the BJP. Todays India is almost like the India of 1972 when all states except Tamil Nadu were under Congress rule. We have seen that the BJP is not invincible. It has been defeated in Bihar and Delhi and can be defeated again. The opposition has to use the momentum which they have gained through discontent among the people with Indias economic performance. If it cannot capitalise now by being united, then let us quote Omar Abdullah for them, At this rate, we might as well forget 2019 & start planning/hoping for 2024.
Featured Image Source: Wikimedia Commons