By Jatin Bavishi
Till about the dawn of Independence, India was a hub to repeated cycles of crop failures and famines. The Government of independent India made it a point to minimize the size, scale and frequency of such occurrences. The total foodgrain production in India has more than doubled, from 108.42 million tonnes in 1970-71 to 275 million tonnes in 2016-17 and is the largest producer in the world of a host of farm products. If history is a witness, this is an achievement in itself.
Agricultural estimates for 2017-18
Growth in Indias foodgrain production and agriculture is likely to be lower in 2017-18 compared to the year before due to lower plantings of rain-fed Kharif (summer season) crops and an uneven south-west monsoon, Nomura Research said in a note on Tuesday. Last years production was at a record level of 275.68 million tonnes. The government has fixed a target of 274.55 million tonnes for ongoing 2017-18 crop year (July-June), according to The Economic Times. Kharif crops like paddy and pulses have been sown in 104.91 million tonnes so far and there is a shortfall of 80,000 hectares from the year-ago period. For the current year, the Agriculture Ministry has fixed the target for rice output at 108.50 million tonnes, wheat at 97.50 million tonnes, pulses at 22.90 million tonnes and coarse cereals at 45.65 million tonnes. However, according to The Economic Times, the targets for wheat, rice and pulses have been kept lower than the actual production achieved last year.
Moody rain Gods and perennial agony of farmers
Despite taking revolutionary steps in terms of production, it is also true that Indian agriculture depends almost entirely on South-West Monsoons. The exact feature of this weather phenomenon is still not properly understood, but a delay in its occurrence or excessive pouring has direct implications on the output. This year, Assam, Bihar, Gujarat and Rajasthan witnessed floods, while parts of Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and Tamil Nadu faced dry spell. According to the Met Department, the southwest monsoon has been 6 percent less till last week. Understanding farmers agony when rains fail can be gauged, one can reasonably expect farmers to reap huge gains when production is bountiful. Sadly, this isnt the case. Farmers from Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh staged massive demonstrations in June and July of this year because bumper harvest caused a glut- prices plummeted and a lot of farmers could not even recover the costs they had incurred during the sowing season. The major brunt was borne by the producers of coarse grains and pulses. As a response to lower prices, farmers have cut down the area under these two.
Relationship between agriculture and Indian Economy
It is well known that agriculture provides direct and indirect employment to approximately half of Indias population. What is less understood is the macroeconomic ramifications. Food an inalienable commodity in our consumption basket and any spike in its price pinches the masses. Lower sowing would lead to lower production next year soaring food inflation. Additionally, lower production would imply agriculture sector as a whole will have lower purchasing power and would defer its spending plans. This would have a multiplier effect. During the first three years of this government (2014-15 to 2016-17) agriculture grew at an average of 1.8% per year. Given this years low growth, the target of the government to double farmer incomes (by 2022) is more of a dream at a time when farmers are struggling for survival. Long-term solutions would require a repertoire of technological and institutional changes as well as better demand and supply management. According to The Economic Times, Capital investment in agriculture, reliable power supply in rural areas, motorable roads and free movement of produce would help convert local gluts into supplies to national and global markets to enhance farmer incomes. At the same time, farmer incomes need to be augmented by diversifying to alternate occupations (such as livestock. It is only simultaneous measures taken at all levels that would ensure true ‘food security.
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