By Disha Rawal
The Indian Economic Survey has been an instructive document on the Indian economy, providing facts, insights, ideas and analysis. This years pink edition, drafted by Arvind Subramanian, is also a harbinger of hope and a sign of better times ahead.
Key highlights
Presented in the Parliament today, the following are the highlights from the survey:
The survey makes a projection of a 7.3% growth rate for the next fiscal year, slightly ahead of the 7.4% pegged by the IMF. It asserts that the GST has expanded the tax net considerably, with around 50% additional indirect taxpayers, a large number of voluntary registrations. GST transactions have also provided a large quantity of data about the structure of the economy, consequently informing about the poor share of exports by large firms.
There is a separate chapter on the dramatic boom and bust in investment in India in 2007-2017, and the major role of the Twin Balance Sheet problem in the bust. The survey captures the fact that taxation is the economic and political contract that a citizen makes with the government, and thus there needs to be a certain level of accountability on the part of the government. It also points out to the dismal tax collections made at the local levels.
There is a discussion on how far India has caught up with the developed economies and the middle-income trap which squeezes middle-income countries between cheap labour and advanced economies. Agriculture and climate find a prominent mention in the discussion on how India has to now focus on reducing the number of people working in agriculture even as each agricultural unit becomes more productive.
One of the most interesting aspects of this study is a long discussion on gender in the economy- an assessment of how the country has fared in the field of gender equality, and if there is a convergence with other economic indicators like household income.
The survey reiterates the importance of science and technology in the growth process even as the share of GDP allocated to research and development remains smaller than what is required.
Apart from these, the governments prolonged pro-business initiatives find appreciation in the document.
Important facts
The Survey presents ten new facts on the Indian economy, pertaining to fiscal developments, monetary policy and industry among others. There is a commentary on how high oil prices have influenced prices in the economy, the scope of the textile industry and non-agricultural payroll in the last fiscal year.
The session on the 29th of January also saw an address by the current President Ram Nath Kovind. The Indian Economic Survey is scheduled to be passed on the 30th of January.
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