By Rahul Gupta
The Turkish government led by Recep Erdogan has dismissed 4400 public employees. Following the attempted coup last July, the Turkish government imposed emergency effectively allowing the government to rule by decree. The parliament vested the government with these powers with a view to cleanse the bureaucracy, military and judiciary from anyone who was complicit in the coup. The period of the emergency was due to last till the 18th January 2017. However, following the attacks on New Years eve in Istanbul, the parliament voted to extend the emergency for another 3 months.
[su_pullquote]Erdogan blames the July coup on the Gulen movement.[/su_pullquote]
The emergency allows the government to fire state employees and shut down associations, including media outlets.The government in Ankara has not been stingy in exercising their powers. Since the coup, over a 100,000 people have lost their job. Teachers and academics have been targeted in particular, in this round of purges. The Turkish government has ostensibly targeted the followers of Fetullah Gulen.
Erdogan blames the July coup on the Gulen movement. The Gulen movement espoused a tolerant form of Islam that focused on education, morality and hard work. The movement, known in Turkey as Hizmet, operates schools all over Turkey.
The Gulen movement
Mr. Gulen was able to gain prominence by his message that young Turks had lost their way education was the only salvation. Both Mr. Gulen and Recep Erdogan believed in a form of political Islam and they worked together to remove the military from the Turkish political scene. Their efforts culminated in 2010 in the Big Sledgehammer case that jailed 300 senior military officials for a coup attempt in 2003. The convictions were apparently a result of collaboration between Gulenists in the judiciary and Mr. Erdogans party the AKP.
Muhammed Fethullah Gülen is a Turkish preacher responsible for the Gulen movement | Picture Courtesy: NBC NewsFollowing this, Mr. Erdogan and the Gulenists found themselves in power struggle for political control over Turkey. The AKP was in power at the time, whereas the Gulen movement simply had members in the state apparatus. The AKP used its powers to force Gulen followers out of public service, claiming they constitute a state within a state; they also accused Gulenists of allowing Iran to bypass sanctions. These actions culminated in May 2016, when Ankara labeled the Gulen movement as a terror group.
Foreign policy of purges
The purges have not gone down well with the EU. However, since the 2016 agreement with the EU concerning refugees, Turkey has found itself with sufficient leverage to not bend to European will. If the phone conversation between President Trump and Erdogan are any indicators, US-Turkey relations may be warming. President Trump apparently commended Turkeys efforts against the ISIS and expressed commitment to fighting terror in all its forms. With sufficient support from the US, it is possible that Erdogan is able to continue his purges with impunity.
However, US-Turkey relations have a few stumbling blocks.
The first is US support to Kurdish fighters in Iraq, Turkey views the Kurdish freedom movement as an existential threat.
The second is the extradition of Fethullah Gulen who currently resides in the USA. Given the politics of the situation, it is unlikely the US will be able to accede to this request and failure to service it can be viewed suspiciously by Ankara.
Recep Tayyip Erdo?an, the president of Turkey | Picture Courtesy: Chicago TribuneDespite challenges with both Europe and the US, Turkey is still likely to enjoy a degree of impunity. Its key role in the war in Syria and the refugee crisis makes overt criticism and interference by other countries unlikely.
The impact of the purge
The purges are expanding in their scope and their targets. The state is cracking down on alleged sympathizers of Kurdish Workers Party. The Kurdish Workers Party is an insurgent group aiming for Kurdish succession from Turkey. The purges have also included legitimate Kurdish opposition parties and their leaders. The regime has also targeted dissenters and academic leftists. These purges are likely to elicit strong reactions from the Kurds.
An unstable mix and the way out
Unfortunately for Mr. Erdogan, his crackdown is unlikely to buy him peace. Political activities and dissent, once they go underground, are harder to control. The ubiquity of the Gulen movement, the passion of the Kurds and the military’s belief in its role in Turkish politics creates an unstable mix.
[su_pullquote align=”right”]Unfortunately for Mr. Erdogan, his crackdown is unlikely to buy him peace.[/su_pullquote]
As Mr. Erdogan grows more authoritarian and continues his purges, his state machinery will be stretched and may be prone to collapse. In that time the AKP may find itself alone and without support. As his internal political support base dwindles and his image abroad grows sourer, Mr. Erdogan must appear to be more tolerant and reasonable in order to create workable solutions for Turkey in the long term.