Expeditious disengagement of India and China over Doklam

By Akshat Vachher

The Sino-Indian relationship is a complex, yet bittersweet one. India and China have had many standoffs because of border disputes which have a root in colonization. The British demarcated territory in the Himalayas, creating a border that is now a point of contention between the two countries. However, apart from 1962 and 1967, relative peace at the border has somehow been maintained.

Despite repeated tensions, India and China now aim to cooperate regarding regional security and economic issues. The Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank is one such example. India is also a major export player in China and trade between the two countries is also vital for both Asian giants. Despite this, the possibility of conflict is always there as both nuclear powers vie for regional influence and financial power.

The current Doklam dispute

The current standoff began in June when Bhutan discovered China’s People’s Liberation Army trying to extend a road through Doklam—a Himalayan plateau that is supposed to be a part of Bhutan but is also claimed by China. India, in an effort to guarantee its close ally’s security, was quick to send its own troops to halt the construction. But, the Indian reaction had self-interests as well. It was asserted that the construction would overlook the tri-nation meeting point of India-Tibet-Bhutan. The road would give the People’s Liberation Army better access to India’s northeast and other disputed areas that China shares with India.

Bluffing and bullying

China has had a history of using bluffing and bullying to achieve its foreign policy objectives. This current stand off is a clear example. Chinese media and government have been using rhetoric and claim that India is punching above its weight and should learn from 1962. However, despite China’s overall military superiority, it is scarcely in a position to defeat India in a Himalayan war. This is because India has several important advantages: the Indian army has greater troop density and occupies higher terrain. Such military stand offs and conflicts could very well be a repeat of 1967, instead of 1962. Moreover, China has repeatedly played the victim card by claiming that Indian soldiers have occupied its territory—this has not gone down well with the locals.Jinpingping has faced backlash for letting Indian soldiers occupy ‘Chinese territory’.

Decision to withdraw and disengage

Looking at the possibility of an actual military conflict with India calling out on China’s bluff and not backing down has led to both countries reaching an agreement, thereby moving towards a solution. On Monday, both sides agreed to withdraw troops and disengage. The decision of withdrawal also comes in the wake of the BRICS conference that is supposed to take place in China, with India also attending. India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that peace and tranquillity along the borders is an essential pre-requisite for pursuing bilateral ties. India has agreed to withdraw its troops first on the condition that China does the same and halt the construction of the road.

India’s decision has gotten a mixed reaction. It is seen by many as a goodwill gesture on India’s part, as one side had to compromise to achieve a solution. The other view is that India had to give in because of China’s military might. However, neither side spoke about the future of the road construction. Even the Chinese officials have not released a statement about the same. It seems that the construction will be halted for the time being, otherwise, India would not have agreed to disengage. Chinese officials have also maintained that their troops will continue to patrol the area to ensure their sovereignty.

The cost of escalation

It seems that border stand offs and disputes will continue happening, but at a peaceful scale as both countries can’t afford to escalate the confrontation. However, China stands to lose out if it continues to repeatedly confront India at the border. In such a scenario, India can move to ally with the USA, China’s main rival; the USA has been helping India to restrain China from exercising its muscle in South China sea. China also stands to lose out on the economic front as it has a 60-billion-dollar trade surplus with India. Repeated confrontation could undermine the world’s fastest growing economy’s economic interests with China.

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