By Dr. Sriparna Pathak
The devastating effects of nuclearisation were recognised early on and what emerged as a result were numerous treaties on control of nuclear capabilities. The dangers of a nuclear holocaust need not be stated. The possibility of such a devastating scenario increases when non responsible, belligerent and war mongering nuclear states possess nuclear arsenal.
Nuclear tensions in the Pacific
On February 12, North Korea, test-fired a missile into the Sea of Japan, drawing international outrage.
Before this, Pyongyang has had five nuclear tests. The previous missile test, had a yield of 20-30 Kilotons (Kt), on September 9, 2016. In July, the U.S. and South Korea confirmed the deployment of Terminal High Altitude Air Defence (THAAD) on South Korean soil. This was in response to Pyongang’s continued emphasis on attacking Pacific U.S. Military bases, continental U.S., and an immediate threat to South Korea and Japan. This was followed by numerous sanctions against North Korea.
However, North Korea has a way to work around sanctions. Research by National Public Radio (NPR) stated that North Korea works around the sanctions by positioning its business community in China. This community works with a network of private Chinese companies to procure arms, according to Jim Walsh, an international security researcher with MIT. These companies sell their goods, without realising that these arms being ultimately channeled to North Korea.
China’s response to the test
[su_pullquote]While China is reportedly irked by the latest test firing by North Korea, it has also expressed concern at the deployment of Terminal High Altitude Air Defence.[/su_pullquote]
In the immediate aftermath of the latest test, some noteworthy developments deserve mention. While China is reportedly irked by the latest test firing by North Korea, it has also expressed concern at the deployment of THAAD. Bejing states that THAAD would impact Chinas own security. The U.S. part urged Beijing to help rein in North Korea. On 17 February, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, used his first meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi for this purpose.
China is reportedly irked by the latest test firing by North Korea | Picture Courtesy – BBCA day earlier, on the sidelines of the G-20 ministerial meeting, Wang Yi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed interest in restarting talks on North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. Wang Yi stressed that UN Security Council resolutions, including sanctions against Pyongyang should be fully implemented, but added: “We cannot give up on seeking a resumption of talks.” As per reports, Chinas commerce ministry stated that coal imports from North Korea would be suspended through the end of the year.
Coal exports makes up about 35 percent of North Koreas economy. 90 percent of its trade is with China which is based on coal export. In 2016, China signed a resolution cutting off trade in coal and other commodities following Pyongyangs nuclear test in September. However, China insisted on a “livelihood exemption,” which “allows the export of a product if cutting it off might affect the livelihood of the exporter, so long as the revenue doesn’t go to North Korea’s nuclear program.”
For China, a failed nuclear state on its doorstep is definitely not desirable. Therefore, in the previous rounds of sanctions imposed, China did not cut off oil or coal or anything that would directly threaten Pyongyangs governance.
A two-faced China on North Korean relations?
Stability of the Korean peninsula and beyond requires a collective effort, including a balanced role played by China.
North Korea’s dependency on China for coal exports needs to be considered and acted accordingly. Only then would international sanctions work the way they are intended to. However at the same time, China opened a container shipping route, a high-speed rail line and created a trade zone at the border in 2015, boosting bilateral trade with Pyongyang.
Stability of the Korean peninsula and beyond requires a collective effort, including a balanced role played by China | Picture Courtesy – Council on Foreign RelationsOn one hand, Beijing denounces North Korea’s actions and calls for sanctions. On the other, China’s trade with Pyongyang has increased more than tenfold over the past 15 years. Beijing summoned the North Korean ambassador to voice his disapproval after the 2013 nuclear test. At the same time, China opened a container shipping route and a high-speed rail line. In 2015, it created a trade zone at the border to boost trade with Pyongyang.
As long as China’s supports North Korea in surviving as a belligerent state, prevention of further nuclearisation of the Korean peninsula will remain futile.