By Rahul Gupta
Background: Building up the offensive
In October 2016, Iraqi government forces began their efforts to take back Mosul. Mosul fell to the ISIS in June 2014. ISIS forces were able to take the city despite being severely outnumbered. This highlighted the poor state of the Iraqi defence forces at the time. The current deployment of troops is the highest since 2003s invasion of Iraq.
Currently, the government, Kurdish, Shia militia, and joined task forces (comprising of the US and other allied forces) outnumber the ISIS roughly 10-1. However, the battle is still highly fraught. The densely populated urban environment makes it difficult to limit the civilian collateral damage. This restricts the actions the government can take. Another challenge is to identify the extent to which ISIS fighters would have dug in and erected defences, owing to the time they have had to prepare.
Mosul has been occupied by the ISIS since June 2014. Civilians have been subject to a strict Islamic code. One source of revenue for the ISIS has been on-the-spot fines for breaking the code. Mosul, once a diverse and tolerant city, has been turned into a place where executions are carried out every day. Residents inside the city have reported a complete absence of any government services. Basic amenities are scarce and expensive. The Iraqi government, Kurdish forces, and Shia militias have been isolating Mosul since 2015, cutting off supplies and amassing forces in the surrounding areas.
Current Situation
By January 2017, the Government forces, backed by a coalition of Iran-backed militia and the Kurdish forces, had gained ground in Mosul. They took control of the eastern part of the city, confining ISIS fighters to the western side of the Tigris river. By February, the government forces had secured key neighbourhoods, even in the western part of Mosul. This is a welcome development, considering that the western part of the city is ancient and features narrow alleyways that dont allow tanks and other vehicles to operate.
The backing of the US partly contributed to these gains. Along with ammunition and supplies, the US has also directly contributed in the form of artillery and heavy weapons support.
5 bridges link the eastern and western parts of the city. The government forces have destroyed four of the bridges, and have taken control of one. This is expected to be a key development, as it will allow the Iraqi forces to lay a supply line from the west to the east of Mosul. While the government backed coalition has made decent gains in the west, the incoming period is challenging. Over 750,000 civilians live on that side of the city. The government forces will need to be incredibly cautious in order to minimise civilian casualties. ISIS forces embedded within the civilian population can use this cover to hamper the government’s operations.
Acknowledging the challenges: Avoiding another Aleppo
The situation inside the city is dire. Most of the residents within the city are at risk, the fighting has made it almost impossible to step out to procure essential supplies. Supplies are either not available, or they are too expensive. The ISIS fighters have laid booby traps and mines to stymie Iraqi progress. However, these traps have caused harm to residents. Mines just outside Mosul killed over 50 civilians trying to escape the fighting.
As the battle for Mosul enters its finals stages, the dreams of an ISIS statehood seem distant. Once Mosul is liberated, the ISIS will be left with empty stretches of land. The ISIS can still cause harm by resorting to insurgent style guerrilla tactics, but once Mosul falls, the goal of establishing a caliphate will become more unrealistic.
As the battle draws to a close and desperation to win increases, other stakeholders will need to intervene and make sure that civilian casualties are minimised. The tragic events in Aleppo highlighted the damage urban warfare can inflict. One can only hope the people making decisions never forget.