By Maria Amjad
B. S. Dhanoa, the Chief of Air Staff of the Indian Air Force (IAF), has written a letter to each IAF officer, asking them to “be prepared” for operations, at a very short notice. While such letters by Air Chiefs to the IAF officers have been written in the past as well, the timing of this very letter demands analysis into its reasons and implications.
Reasons for concern
The letter states, In the present scenario, there is an ever persistent ‘sub-conventional threat’. Therefore, we need to be prepared for operations with our present holdings, at a very short notice. Training needs to be focused towards this.
There are two types of sub-conventional” threats to India that Dhanoa was referring tothe possibility of a war with Pakistan and the increasing unrest in Kashmir.
Escalation of tensions with Pakistan
India has held Pakistan responsible for the many terrorist attacks on its territory. India has claimed that these attacks are either funded by the authorities of Pakistan or are the work of terrorist organisations operating from within the neighbouring country.
The Uri-attack was the most recent of these, which again jeopardised the relations between the two arch-rivals. India blamed Pakistan for the deadly attack, which in turn, pleaded innocent on various international platforms. Though Dhanoa has not been specific in his letter about the role of Pakistan as a sub-conventional threat, it is evident that he is insinuating the possibility of another terror attack by Pakistan. India, which has already responded vehemently to by conducting surgical strikes, wants its Air Force to be prepared to tackle any other such situation in the future as well.
Increasing terror attacks on military camps in Kashmir
In the past few months, tensions have escalated between angry mobs led by stone pelters and the Indian security forces in Srinagar, making the Indian army fear that the situation in Kashmir will soon spin out of control. Various international newspapers are brimming with news of severe human rights violations in Kashmir committed by the Indian Army, which has further convoluted the situation for India.
Furthermore, in the last few weeks, there have been incidents of ceasefire violations by Pakistan that have forced many villagers of Jammu to evacuate their houses and take refuge in the bunkers. Reports say that more than 26 villages in the Kashmir valley have been subjected to heavy mortar firing from across the border. Therefore, Dhanoa wants the IAF to be prepared for more attacks of such nature from across the border and within the Kashmiri valley as well.
Implications for the military
In order to make the aims of the letter more practical, there are two things that the IAF needs to work on immediately. Firstly, the Indian Army and the IAF, in particular, need to devise a strategy to deal with the multiple non-state actors operating in Pakistan and not just its government. So, the most important challenge that the IAF faces is the ability to counter Pakistani militia which is not directly associated with the government.
Secondly, the IAF needs to build up its capabilities to fight two wars simultaneously against two military giants, Pakistan and China. Last year, Air Chief Dhanoa himself admitted that the IAF does not have the capability to effectively face a two-front war involving China and Pakistan. But in his letter, Dhanoa talked about preparing for operations “with our present holdings”. By doing so, he was implying that Indias present holdings, though insufficient, would be used intelligently to fight or counter any threat from China and Pakistan. Nevertheless, he showed concern over the absence of adequate squadrons in the IAF. Almost half of the fighter planes currently in use are set to be decommissioned over the next nine years. It is authorised to have 42 squadrons of fighter air crafts but currently has the capacity to fight with only 33.
It is being said that even if India wants to deter Pakistan or make sure conflict does not escalate on Indian soil, it needs to do that by developing a plausible and discreet policy. A policy that would not only take Pakistan on the back foot but will also allow India’s military hardware to be fully restored and operational at full capacity for contingencies.
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