The AAP’s Bawana win: Is the party back on track?

By Akhileshwari Anand Raj

The by-poll elections held in constituencies of Goa, Delhi and Andhra Pradesh were decided on 28th August 2017. Both the seats in Goa—Panaji and Valpoi—were nabbed by the BJP. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) candidate won in Nandyal, Andhra Pradesh. The Aam Aadmi Party won by a comfortable margin in Delhi’s Bawana.

TDP’s win comes as a referendum on the performance of the TDP-BJP government in Andhra Pradesh. The TDP won this seat with a huge margin. This was a blow to the YSR-Congress party which had previously won this seat in 2014. In Goa, Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar won the Panaji seat for the sixth time. Moreover, Vishwajit Rane won Valpoi by defeating Congress’ Roy Naik by over ten thousand votes.

AAP retains Delhi—for now

The AAP won the Bawana seat by over 24,000 votes, leaving behind the BJP and the Congress (which is yet to enter the Delhi assembly). These by-elections were held because of Ved Prakash, who had won this seat as an AAP candidate, but quit the party before the civic polls in March and joined the BJP. What makes this victory significant is that AAP’s Ram Chander won this seat against Ved Prakash himself, who was contesting from the BJP.

This by-election was crucial for the AAP. It put to test the party’s popularity in the only state that it rules. It was also a show of power for political rivals like the BJP, which seeks to win all seven Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 national elections, as it did in 2014. AAP’s popularity has taken a hit ever since it swept the Delhi assembly elections in 2015, winning 67 out of the 70 seats. The BJP overshadowed AAP in the Delhi civic polls in April. This came after AAP’s humiliating defeat in the Punjab and Goa assembly elections in March.

Unsuccessful expansion attempts

In the civic polls held in March this year, the BJP swept 181 out of the 270 seats in Delhi. These seats were spread over the North, South and East Delhi Municipal Corporations. The AAP emerged a distant second, winning only 30 seats.

The AAP banked on the Punjab and Goa assembly elections to expand beyond the national capital. It believed its chances were fair, given the anti-incumbency factor and the relatively small size of the states. However, it managed to win only 20 seats in Punjab, in comparison to the Congress’ 77, and did not win even one seat in Goa, where BJP managed to win 21 out of the 40 seats.

In the 2015 Assembly elections, AAP had won the Rajouri Garden seat in Delhi. However, the seat fell vacant when AAP’s Jarnail Singh resigned to contest the Punjab Assembly elections. Akali Dal’s Manjinder Singh Sirsa, who contested on a BJP ticket, won the by-election. While the Congress came in the second position, the AAP candidate forfeited his deposit.

Are things looking up for AAP?

This by-poll win means that AAP has 66 MLAs in the state assembly of 70 members, which is still a crushing majority. It had won 67 in the assembly elections in 2015, leaving only three for the BJP. The BJP looked to increase its count to five with this by-poll, and the Congress’ chances of entering the legislature looked hopeful as it was neck-to-neck with the AAP at the initial stages of counting. AAP has proven that it is back on track after a number of high-profile losses. This win is just what the AAP needed to see whether its position remains safe in the only region it rules.

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