By Devika Bedi
Senior Congress leader and former Gujarat Chief Minister, Shankersinh Vaghela, quit Indian National Congress on July 21 to promote his supporters forum—Jan Vikalp (JV). It is now three months before Gujarat state assembly elections. Anxiety over opinion polls looms over the party candidates in Gujarat. This split is speculated to dent BJP’s popularity in the state where it has assumed administrative charge for over two decades. Vaghela is known for his eccentric and unpredictable political switches from the Congress to Bharatiya Janata Party to even forming his own outfit.
What does Vaghela’s past record indicate?
In 1996, Vaghela moved out of BJP and was with Rashtriya Janata Party before he became the Chief Minister with Congress’s aid. In 2016, he quit Congress along with 14 other party leaders for not being considered as the chief ministerial candidate of Gujarat.
Shankersinh Vaghela and his son Mahendrasinh Vaghela are, by far, the only popular face in the state while the other two major parties—BJP and Congress—lack state leadership. For now, he has given ample hints that communicate his non-alignment with any of the other parties. “It is a myth to say that an alternative political force can’t work in Gujarat,” said Vaghela.
Strategy for the upcoming elections?
Vaghela’s formation of a new outfit was predicted by senior Congress leaders in Delhi even though he himself denied all speculations even a month back. BJP denies being affected by the new entry and says that participation of Jan Vikalp will only affect its chief and not the BJP. “It doesn’t matter to us. More than any party, it will benefit him personally,” said BJP leader Parshottam Rupala. On September 19, the Jan Vikalp chief committed to not to attack his political rivals individually and rather question their ideologies. “I have decided to support the campaign of Jan Vikalp but I won’t criticise individuals such as Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Sonia Gandhi or Rahul Gandhi but criticise their political parties,” he announced in Gandhinagar.
As his election strategy, he claims to target seats in North Gujarat where he has significant popularity and aims to dent Congress’s voters in Central and North Gujarat. North Gujarat runs on heavy dairy industries and has a significant amount of Backward Class population which maintains a good rapport with the new JV leader, one who belongs to an upper caste Rajput family.
Implications of the political split
The split can be inferred in many ways. Congressmen accuse BJP of using money and muscle power to initiate eleventh-hour mutations in political parties, reflecting BJP’s pan Indian growing influence. Unlike in Bihar’s Maha Gathbandhan, getting reduced to a lesser vote share would have been avoidable in Gujarat under a strong and stable leadership. Congress is facing a perpetual downfall with Karnataka as its last resort to maintain some serious opposition. According to political commentator, R. Balashankar, Congress in Gujarat has always been a house divided with one faction led by Ahmed Patel and the other by Shankersinh Vaghela. The former is a leader with party majority while the latter is a mass leader with a considerable influence in the Kshatriya community. Ever since BJP won all 26 seats in Gujarat assembly in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Congress MLAs have been inclined to join the saffron bandwagon. This is directly linked to the shaping of public opinion. The masses have trust stability and a clearly laid-out plan. Congress clearly does not meet this criterion.
In absence of Vaghela, Congress will lose out on a substantial chunk of Kshatriya vote base irrespective of how much BJP loses due to the aftermath of last year’s Patel agitation. BJP has been successful in amassing communities like the Koli, tribals and Dalits that have an over 17% lead in the state’s population. Vaghela’s long association with the RSS has made the Congress BJP’s B-team in Gujarat. His popularity in the state has made him the team member every party wants. Congress used Vaghela to bring down Keshubhai Patel’s government in 1995 only to taste their own medicine in July 2017. Vaghela is now looking for a third party alternative for the state of Gujarat to secure ground for his heir.
Shankersinh Vaghela—the man marinated in charges of corruption and illegal sale of government land—is nevertheless a person of great significance in months to come. He holds the popular significant vote share in Gujarat by himself. Indian polity is an interchanging array of opportunism swathing the case for Bihar and West Bengal up to Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. Gujarat is embodied by circumstantial decisions made primarily on the basis of short-term goals and gains. Which party administers in Mahatma’s land is for time to tell.
Featured Image Source: Wikimedia Commons
Stay updated with all the insights.
Navigate news, 1 email day.
Subscribe to Qrius
