By Haya Wakil
On the 20th of January, 2018, the Turkish military along with its Syrian rebel allies launched an operation—codenamed Operation Olive Branch—in the Northwestern Syrian town of Afrin. The town is considered to be important because it has been held by Kurdish forces since 2012. Kurds are an ethnic group separated by ideology, political, social and personal rivalries, but were promised a separate state at the end of the First World War I—a promise that is yet to be fulfilled. They are mostly live in Turkey, Syria, Iran, Iraq and Armenia.
This turn of events in the seven-year-long Syrian civil war has further complicated the already complex situation. It also puts further strains on the relationship between Turkey and United States—who are NATO allies—as the Syrian Kurdish militia is backed by US. The two countries have already been at odds over other matters in Syria.
The background
There are a number of military forces and militia operating in Syria, the most prominent being the Syrian Army which is backed by Iran and Russia. Rebel factions, Turkish and American troops along with a coalition led by Saudi Arabia and other forces, pro-Syrian government forces and Kurdish forces are also engaged in the country.
The Kurdish militia in Afrin is known as the People’s Protection Unit (YPG) and has been declared a terrorist organisation by Ankara. It is also linked to the Kurdistan’s Workers’ Party, which for a long time has had strained relations with Turkish government because of their demand for a separate Kurdish state.
Adding to the web of complicated military alliances in the war-torn country, the YPG is also in alliance with the Syrian Democratic Forces, which control around 25percent of Syrian territory. This rebel alliance has been at the forefront of the struggle against the Islamic State.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to further advance his military operations into the Kurdish-held territory and even into neighbouring areas in Iraq. According to Deutsche Welle, the US has some 2000 special forces stationed in SDF-controller areas. The further advance of the Turkish military will distract them from their fight against ISIS. Turkey, on the other hand, wants to pressure the US to reconsider their support for Kurdish forces because the Kurdish minority are demanding greater autonomy at the expense of Turkey. There is also a fear that the US will aid in the creation of a quasi-state by the Kurdish militia.
How the current conflict began
The latest conflict started with Turkey’s plan to create a ‘safe zone’ in northern Aleppo, pushing back IS and SDF from the border. This was part of the ‘de-escalation’ zone deal Turkey made with Iran and Russia, but the airspace is still controlled by Russian forces and any intervention requires their approval.
There is speculation that Turkey might bring its loyalists as well as some three million Syrian refugees currently in Turkey into the town. On the other hand, some 200,000 people have fled the town, and the question is whether they will be allowed to come back. There have been indications of mass looting and revenge attacks, but one has been able to identify who is responsible.
For the moment everyone seems to be concerned with how the civil war will end and who will have the best cards at the negotiation table. The international community at large wants merely the Syrian civil war to stop as soon as possible and for an end to the Humanitarian crisis. What the situation requires right now is a peaceful dialogue which leads to a solution and we can only hope that this happens soon.
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