By Madhulika Gupta
Weeks after the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) made public the rift between Andhra Pradesh’s ruling party and its coalition partner BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), TDP has issued a deadline for all the 19 promises made by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to be fulfilled. With March 5 looming over their heads, BJP is trying to keep their cool and keeping an upper hand, however, BJP members are keen on breaking the alliance with TDP if the heated issue is not amicably resolved.
Vying for attention, TDP has issued a statement wherein if their demands are not met and if the Centre does not cede to their demands, TDP’s MPs will put their papers in.The party’s actions suggest more of an ultimatum than a way to resolve matters.
With 2019 Lok Sabha elections almost in sight and BJP already losing out on Shiv Sena as an ally in Maharashtra, a break-up with TDP will be a disaster waiting to happen for BJP. Andhra Pradesh is the only Southern state where BJP has a presence, however marginal it may be.
TDP proclaiming promises or demands?
Andhra Pradesh was clearly not a big fan of the bifurcation of the state in 2014. The state would face a huge revenue deficit which would keep on piling. As a measure to compensate Andhra Pradesh, the Centre (then led by Dr Manmohan Singh) made promises to the state under the AP Reorganisation Act 2014. Included in this was the Special Category Status (SCS) for Andhra Pradesh as its ‘right’ after the bifurcation.
However, after the 14th Finance Commission came into existence, the SCS as a status has been made null & void. In exchange for SCS, the Centre agreed to give AP a “special assistance package” of five years in the form of Centre funding for projects. AP Government is now demanding that it may find it difficult to spend all the assistance in five years and so they want to use the package’s money to pay off debts. This has become the newest bone of contention.
The Government at Centre changed in mid-2014 and Andhra Pradesh immediately realised that they will be in a disadvantaged position if they choose to not side with BJP-led NDA. Perhaps, the reason why TDP chose to align with BJP was that they could see the winds of change blowing in the nation; winds that were in big favour of BJP.
Also included in these promises is the Polavaram project, which TDP argues has been given the tag of a national project and hence, the entire cost of Rs 33,000 crore should be borne by the Centre. On the other hand, the Centre has released a mere Rs 4,500 crore due to which, the AP Government is in debt.
Andhra Pradesh and the newly-formed Telangana share Hyderabad as its capital as of now. However, AP was given 10 years (w.e.f. 2014) to build its new capital; AP chose Amaravati to be its capital. The cost of building everything from scratch needs a filthy amount of money and AP has appealed to the Centre to “help” them.
Other demands include the establishment of the Vishakhapatnam railway zone and setting up of central institutions like IITs, IIMs, etc. While the work for these institutions has started, the funds being transferred are very less.
BJP remains unfazed by threats
While BJP’s Andhra Pradesh members have conveyed to the party’s high command that if the situation has so arisen where there is no alternative but to snap ties, BJP should be the one to walk out first. TDP MP’s gave it back by saying everyone has smartphones, it would take a minute to resign if that is what is required.
Very recently, Andhra Pradesh CM N. Chandrababu Naidu also said that his party and Government is ready for a no-confidence motion, but it would be the last resort. However, even TDP knows that if that is chosen, BJP, which has a majority at the Centre, will remain largely unaffected. That is why TDP has now resorted to asking the Centre to take steps for the welfare of Andhra Pradesh’s people.
BJP, on the other hand, is unfazed by the possible nightmare of losing yet another ally. BJP leader Manikyala Rao has asserted that the party is thriving; it has survived a break-up with Shiromani Akali Dal (Punjab), Biju Janata Dal (Odisha) and Shiv Sena (Maharashtra). BJP is making it look like the party will face no loss, come what may.
BJP ready to go solo to enter South?
Politics in Tamil Nadu has been seen as a ‘Dravida’ affair and that in Kerala has been a fight between Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) and Indian National Congress (INC).
Andhra Pradesh is the only link BJP has with South India. Snapping ties with such a strategic element right a year before general elections might be categorized as a moronic move. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has visited DMK patron M. Karunanidhi; DMK’s Kanimozhi and A. Raja have been acquitted in the 2G spectrum case- all this could be read as a way to appease to a party that has a strong foothold down South.
With intentions like these, getting a bad name from a sister South Indian state of Andhra Pradesh has the ability to put away BJP’s dream of entering South politics for good.
TDP and BJP are the examples of a quintessential marriage; they both don’t agree on things, are washing their dirty linen in public instead of sorting their issues out at home and have resorted to ‘no talking terms’. However, like any other marriage, they both need each other and know that they strive together.
If TDP is BJP’s ticket to enter South politics, TDP also needs to ally with NDA to be able to have representation at the Centre and for the Centre to hear them. It is also in TDP’s knowledge that if BJP chooses to align with YSR Congress led by Jaganmohan Reddy, TDP might just be wiped out.
Working with 2019 in hindsight
Shiv Sena has already mandated that it will float solo for the 2019 General elections and is choosing to not ally with BJP any longer. If anything, this signifies that all might not be well with NDA and its allies and that its friends might be turning foes and might even be losing confidence in BJP.
Before the rift between TDP and BJP came out in public, there were rumours that TDP insiders have been suggested moving out of what has become a bitter marriage. Rumours were, if BJP would have lost Gujarat, TDP would have most likely moved out of the alliance.
In circumstances like these, when BJP is being attacked left right and centre, and not much time in hands before the bugle of 2019 General elections is rung, BJP might want to steer clear of any controversy and corruption charges. This seems a little less unlikely with how things have unravelled off lately with reference to the PNB scam. The last thing they would want amidst this is another break-up (tensions are also rife between the newly-formed BJP-JD(U) alliance).
Also in the scheme of things is the hat-trick of losses BJP has faced in bypolls at the hand of Congress, a number that seems to rise with every passing day. Be it Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh or Odisha; signs of danger are going up at a fast rate.
The consequences of all this coupled together can be a source of a setback for the party and even obstruct the dreams of BJP-led NDA coming in for another five-year term in 2019.
Featured image source: Wikimedia Commons
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