Qrius Quotient: 2023 review of Indian economy

India’s GDP expanded 6-7.1% annually in fiscal years 2024-2026

-S&P Global

India’s real GDP grew by 7.8% year-on-year in the first quarter (April to June). GDP grew at a higher-than-expected 7.6% in the July to September 2023 quarter

-National Statistical Office

Second quarter’s growth of 7.6% was lower than that of the first quarter’s 7.8%, it was still well over the central bank’s prediction of 6.5%

Repo rate has remained unchanged since February this year at 6.5%, as the RBI’s 6-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) focuses on keeping inflation within the 4% target

Inflation rate in October 2023 eased to a 4-month low at 4.87%, it was the highest in July at 7.44%

Consumer prices surged by 5.55% in November 2023, the second-highest inflation rate since November 2021, April 2022 saw a record inflation rate of 7.79%.

Consumer prices of food and beverages surged by 8.02% in November 2023, after they had eased to a 4-month low of 6.24% in October.

Cereals, fruits, vegetables surged over 10% with pulses and spices surpassing the 20% mark.

Oils & fats recorded a decline in prices by around 15%, the only two components to do so

Clothing & footwear recorded an inflation rate of 3.9% in November 2023, as compared to the 9.1% inflation rate at the start of 2023,

Housing inflation rates eased to 3.55%

Fuel & light prices continued to decline over the prices last year by 0.77%

For the January to March 2024 period, inflation is expected to average 5.2%

India’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained above 50, signalling an expanding output, with the PMI hitting 56 in November 2023

-Standard and Poor

Global India Manufacturing PMI slipped to 55.5 from 57.6 in September 2023.

The rupee depreciated 0.29% from January 1 to mid-December 2023 from around 82.7 on January 1 to around 83.01 on December 15, lower than last year’s over 11% depreciation

Unemployment rate peaked at 10.1% in October 2023

-Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE)

Urban unemployment has come down from 7.2% in July-September, 2022 to 6.6% in July–September 2023

-Periodic Labour Force Survey

Labour Force Participation Raten for urban areas, increased from 47.9% in July-September, 2022 to 49.3% in July–September, 2023 for persons aged 15 years and above

The worker population ratio in urban areas increased from 44.5% in July-September, 2022 to 46% in July-September, 2023 for persons aged 15 years and above

 

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