Bitcoin’s value has taken a hit following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during the December 18 meeting. Powell indicated that interest rate cuts in 2025 would hinge on inflation consistently remaining below the 2% mark. This cautious outlook has dampened speculative enthusiasm in the crypto market.
Price movements and key technical levels
Bitcoin hit a recent low of $93,500 — nearly $15,000 below its December 17 peak — and slipped below its 50-day moving average, a critical support level identified by analysts. By December 29, Bitcoin had tested this threshold several times, suggesting potential stabilization.
In the options market, sentiment has shifted noticeably. Last week, heavy bearish hedging emerged, with investors purchasing large volumes of put options expiring in January, February, and March, with strike prices ranging from $75,000 to $80,000. The typical low liquidity during the holiday season could amplify price volatility in the near term.
MicroStrategy: a high-reward but risky Bitcoin proxy
No analysis of Bitcoin is complete without mentioning MicroStrategy, the Virginia-based software company turned Bitcoin investment vehicle. Its stock has surged over 480% in the past year, fueled by aggressive Bitcoin acquisitions funded through equity sales and convertible debt. MicroStrategy has become a preferred choice for investors seeking crypto exposure without directly buying the OG or Bitcoin ETFs.
However, the company’s leveraged position poses significant risks. A sharp drop in Bitcoin price could make it difficult for MicroStrategy to meet its debt obligations, potentially forcing the company to liquidate its crypto holdings. This, in turn, could lead to further declines in Bitcoin’s price.
Debt levels and acquisition strategy
Currently, MicroStrategy holds $7.2 billion in convertible debt, with $6 billion issued in 2023. These instruments have attracted hedge funds using market-neutral arbitrage strategies to profit from Bitcoin’s volatility. Although the company’s debt structure seems stable for now, its resilience in a major market downturn remains uncertain.
Between December 16 and December 22, MicroStrategy acquired 5,262 Bitcoin tokens at an average price of $106,662, marking its seventh consecutive week of acquisitions. This move has secured its spot in the NASDAQ 100. The company aims to raise $42 billion through equity and convertible debt sales over the next three years to continue buying Bitcoin. Co-founder and Chairman Michael Saylor has indicated the strategy will be reassessed once this target is achieved. So far, two-thirds of this ambitious goal has been met.
2025 and beyond
The broader crypto market fundamentals remain strong. While Bitcoin’s volatility is notorious, a correction of 30–40% — bringing prices down to the previous rally highs of $50,000–$60,000 — would not significantly alter the market’s long-term outlook.
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