Mamata Banerjee to host Mahagathbandhan: What is it and who’s attending?

Billed as the largest political event in West Bengal post-independence, a host of Opposition leaders will attend a political rally organised by West Bengal Chief Minister and All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) leader Mamata Banerjee on January 19. Comprising non-BJP parties “from Kashmir to Kanyakumari,” this is slated to be the first and last, united opposition rally before the Election Commission of India (EC) announces poll dates for the general elections.

“It will be a ‘United India Rally’ against the misrule of the BJP. It will sound the death knell for the BJP…The saffron party’s seat count in the general election will not cross 125. The number of seats the state parties will win will be much higher than that of the BJP’s,” Banerjee said on Thursday, adding, “On January 19, you will see a huge representation from all regions of the country. Heavy-weight national leaders, including a former prime minister and several ex-chief ministers, will attend the rally.”

Who is attending, and is Congress one of them?

Aimed to be a show of strength for Opposition forces, the rally will be held at the Brigade Parade ground in state capital Kolkata. Among the political heavyweights expected to attend and hold meetings with Banerjee on the sidelines of the rally are NCP chief Sharad Pawar, DMK president MK Stalin, JDS President HD Deve Gowda, Karnataka CM HD Kumaraswamy, Delhi CM and AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal, and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister, TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu.

Senior Congress leaders Mallikarjun Kharge and Abhishek Manu Singhvi may also make an appearance. The Opposition had made similar shows of solidarity when Kumaraswamy, Ashok Gehlot, Kamal Nath and Bhupesh Bhagel were sworn in after defeating BJP incumbency in their respective states.

Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) chief Ajit Singh, Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav, former Jharkhand Chief Minister and Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) chief Babulal Marandi, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) chief Badruddin Ajmal, National Conference (NC) chief Farooq Abdullah and former Jammu & Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah are also likely to attend, Banerjee is quoted as saying in an NDTV report.

Former BJP leaders Yashwant Sinha, Ram Jethmalani and Arun Shourie may also attend along with Bihar’s BJP MP MP Shatrughan Sinha, who will represent Yashwant Sinha’s political action group Rashtra Manch. All of them are openly against Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP.

Who is taking a rain check?

Besides senior Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi, notable regional leaders like BSP supremo Mayawati have declined the invitation. Telangana’s ruling TRS chief K Chandrasekhar Rao is also skipping the event in all likelihood. Gandhi tendered a letter to extend his “support to Mamata Di on this show of unity and hope that we send a powerful message of a united India together,” while SP is probably sending Rajya Sabha MP Satish Mishra as a representative.

Party sources last week said KC Rao turned down the invitation because he did not want to share the stage with Gandhi before he too expressed his wish to keep a distance from the event. This comes a year after Banerjee and Rao met in Kolkata to constitute a third federal front sans Congress, a cursory agreement which the TMC chief dissolved when she met him next on December 24.

With Congress being TRS’s main opposition in Telangana, Rao had announced his withdrawal from the Mahagathbandhan to media after the latest meeting, while his West Bengal counterpart, who is reportedly less keen on excluding the Congress in the proposed grand opposition alliance, refused to comment. It is also worth noting that KCR also visited Odisha to garner support for his anti-Congress anti-BJP front from the BJD, which recently announced it would not be aligning with either of the two national parties in the coming elections.

The Communist Party of India (Marxist), Banerjee’s longstanding political arch-rival in the state, will also not attend the rally along with leaders of other Left parties including Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan. Banerjee, however, said she had extended the invitation to all of them but hasn’t heard back.

The controversy over BJP’s rally

Last month, the West Bengal government denied permission for BJP’s rath yatras which followed a skirmish between the two parties at the Kolkata High Court, while the centre threatened to even move Supreme Court.

Banerjee had claimed to have been briefed by intelligence officials regarding possible communal violence that could break out in Coochbehar, a starting point of one of the three rallies, to justify her non-response and denial of permission.

As part of the election campaign, BJP chief Amit Shah was to travel to the state this month and inaugurate the party’s “Save Democracy Rally” on December 7, covering all the 42 Lok Sabha constituencies in West Bengal. Three rath yatras were scheduled to take part in this mega-roadshow, from Coochbehar, Kakdwip and the Tarapith temple in Birbhum district.

The Supreme Court on Christmas turned down an urgent hearing of BJP’s petition challenging the Calcutta High Court order which prohibited the party’s “rath yatras” in West Bengal.

Mamata’s goal and why it matters

A TMC leader told Hindustan Times that along with the police, 3,000 party volunteers will be present for crowd management. While 5 stages, 20 LED screens, and 1000 loudspeakers may not signify a great deal next to the BJP whose political campaigns and rallies often acquire a larger scale, it is certainly above and beyond the modesty that Bengal’s rallies are used to.

This drives home the point that larger things are at stake for Banerjee, who has long since eyed the prime ministerial candidacy. The event may serve as a launch pad for Banerjee’s campaign for the top office in New Delhi, many have claimed.

With the rally, Banerjee said she aims to send a warning and make a prediction for the NDA-led centre, hinting that the Mahagathbandhan that has been on everyone’s lips since last year, is finally taking shape with as many members it can mobilise on common ground.

While all these parties are in consensus about replacing the BJP-led NDA coalition with an oppositional alliance, the contours of who gets the PM ticket is not clear yet, and several including Banerjee and Mayawati have openly expressed their higher political ambitions that surpass mere seat gain or dethroning BJP.

Thus, it remains to be seen in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls will witness a historic triangular fight among the central parties and regional allies, also testing the power and prospects of a third federal alliance working in India’s political structure.

As Banerjee rightly said, “The federal parties, that is, the regional parties, will be the deciding factor after the elections.”

Prarthana Mitra is a staff writer at Qrius

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