By Shruti Sonal
Politics in Bihar has a knack for throwing up surprises that have broader consequences for national politics. Merely a year before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, yet another challenge has been thrown by Bihar, this time in the form of ex-CM Jitan Ram Manjhi’s decision to quit NDA and join the RJD-led Grand Alliance. Manjhi announced his decision on Wednesday, after meeting RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav at his residence.
The reason for the switch
The immediate trigger for the decision seems to be the sidelining of Mr Manjhi’s wish to field his son as the candidate for the upcoming by-poll elections in Jehanabad constituency. The NDA alliance instead fielded JD(U)’s preferred candidate Abhiram Sharma, which hurt the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) leader. However, it appears to be the final nail in the coffin for the worsening relations between Manjhi and Nitish Kumar, dating back to the latter’s interference in Manjhi’s term as Chief Minister and eventual decision to oust him from his position. He was later expelled from JD(U), when he floated his new party HAM in 2015, joining the NDA. However, with JD(U) and BJP joining hands once again, Manjhi found himself at the margins of the alliance.
Consequences for caste equations
This decision of Mr Manjhi is bound to have far-reaching consequences for not only state politics in Bihar but also the future of the Grand Alliance. Most crucially, it is bound to affect the equations of caste-based vote bank politics and also boost the role of smaller parties in deciding the fate of 2019.
Manjhi was catapulted to prominence as a Dalit leader in the state by being the 23rd chief minister in 2014, following a poor performance by Nitish Kumar in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Following his thorny relation with JD(U) and his decision to float his party, he has gained an aura of a rebellious representative of the Dalits in the state. His decision to join the Grand Alliance, thus, is likely to trigger a shift of a substantial section of Musahars, whose population is over two million in the state, towards the RJD-led alliance. This is likely to sharpen the divide between upper caste and lower caste votes in Bihar, as RJD and Congress also enjoy support from communities like the Yadavs and Muslims. The support of a Dalit leader has finally provided the Alliance a much-needed counter to Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party, which is a part of the NDA alliance.
Boost for the Grand Alliance
It is clear that Manjhi’s decision has led to a surge of optimism within the Grand Alliance. RJD leader Tejaswini Yadav in his statement welcomed “a father figure and a champion of social justice, to the Mahagathbandhan”. It is important to remember that the blow to NDA is more symbolic than numerical, as Manjhi’s HAM was the smallest faction of NDA having only one MLA. However, it has brought to light cracks in the NDA alliance and triggered anxieties among smaller parties in the NDA alliance, including Upendra Kushwaha-led Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP). Sources from within the party said that Manjhi’s decision proved that “the BJP should now start listening to smaller allies instead of ignoring their demands.” Originally formed before the 2015 Bihar legislative elections, the Grand Alliance appeared to have lost steam with the breakaway of Nitish Kumar and absence of Lalu Yadav, serving his term in the fodder scam case. However, at a crucial juncture before the 2019 General elections, it appears to have come back on track as the BJP-led Saffron Wave faces emerging challenges in pockets across the country.
Featured Image Source: SJ photography on VisualHunt.com / CC BY-NC-ND
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