On 9 April, EU member-states greenlit their first countermeasures to US President Donald Trump’s trade offensive – the same day Washington’s global tidal wave of “reciprocal” tariffs were meant to enter into force. Yet, after threatening the EU with a blanket 20% levy on top of its 25% steel and aluminium tariffs, Trump’s eleventh hour volte-face has halved the bloc’s rate during the 90-day pause in trade hostilities.
Consequently placed on hold less than 24 hours after approval, the European Commission’s initial response to the US’s metals tariffs consisted of tariffs of up to 25% on a range of strategically-targeted American exports, including soybeans, meat, tobacco and iron, worth an estimated €22 billion. If eventually unfrozen, this multi-phased package would mark only the beginning, with Brussels still weighing its reaction to the US’s broader tariffs.
Given the Trump administration’s volatility, Europe’s lucrative, world-renowned agri-food exports remain under serious threat, meaning the Commission and EU member-states must work closely with partners across the food supply chain to prepare a balanced, comprehensive response that protects its highly-exposed producers.
Impact across the EU
Despite the tenuous truce, Europe’s food and beverage sectors are not soon to forget the panic felt following Donald Trump’s 2 April “Liberation Day” announcements. As the EU’s second-largest agri-food export destination after the UK, the U.S. accounted for over €25.1 billion in exports last year – 13% of the bloc’s total. For EU producers, losing access to the US market would clearly be devastating, with the replacement of such enormous demand overnight essentially impossible.
As think tank Farm Europe recently highlighted, unlike U.S. exports – mainly bulk commodities like soy and nuts – EU agri-food products are high-value, tightly origin-linked and thus much more difficult to reroute. Among the cherished goods particularly exposed to US tariffs are Andalusian olive oil, Italy’s Pecorino Romano and Greek feta, as well as French wine, champagne and cognac, with the EU’s southern countries forming the most vulnerable region as the leading food exporters to the U.S.
Led by the France-Italy-Ireland trio, the EU exported €4.9 billion of wine and €2.9 billion of spirits to America last year, in addition to the bloc’s €1.3 billion of cheese exports – primarily from Italy, France, Spain and the Netherlands – and €560 million of mostly Irish butter. Meanwhile, Spain and Italy alone exported a combined €2 billion in olive oil, with Andalusia’s Jaén province accounting for 80% of the former’s contribution. As European Dairy Association (EDA) Secretary General Alexander Anton has aptly summarised, Trump’s “unjustified” tariff assault represents “a blow to rural economies across Europe.”
Conversely, EU shoppers could see lower grocery prices in the short-term, as both domestic and foreign companies – particularly from China, Japan and India – will likely redirect excess, US-destined products to Europe. As the interlocutor between consumers and producers, Europe’s supermarkets have a key role to play in mitigating the fallout, yet the sector is not consistently rising to the occasion.
Nutri-Score: supermarkets lack of solidarity
In a rare show of solidarity, Danish retailer Salling Group recently announced that it will be adding a black star to price tags for EU-made goods, giving shoppers a chance to favour European products over American ones in protest against Trump’s hostility. Consumer groups across Europe are reportedly eyeing similar moves to send Washington a strong message while providing a much-needed boon for the continent’s embattled producers. Yet, via its Føtex subsidiary, Salling has simultaneously undermined its support of EU farmers by introducing another type of packaging label which has the opposite effect.
Last November, Føtex announced the imposition of the polarising Nutri-Score label on its products, roughly one week after French retail giant Carrefour revealed it would be forcing its suppliers to include Nutri-Score on its online products or else face public shaming. This dual spark appears to have inspired the Dutch chain Albert Heijn, which decided in March to expand Nutri-Score nutrition labelling to all of its domestically-sold products, making it the latest addition of a retail club including heavy-hitters like Leclerc, Aldi and Lidl.
At a time when the European Commission has dropped Nutri-Score, these retailers are making life more difficult for the very EU producers currently caught in Trump’s crosshairs. Indeed, with its misleading and unscientific scores, Nutri-Score remains a major threat to the competitiveness of EU’s heritage cheeses and cured meats possibly set for crippling tariff hikes, while even whole milk and certain fruit face lowered scores under the newly-approved algorithm.
Political leaders and researchers in countries across the EU, such as Poland, Portugal, Greece and even Nutri-Score home country France – many of the member states most exposed to Trump’s tariffs – are turning away from Nutri-Score over its consumer confusion effects and and unjustified harm to local producers, making it utterly incomprehensible that Europe’s supermarkets would choose this critical moment to unilaterally impose an outdated and increasingly-disavowed system.
Time to pull all the stops
Moving forward, the EU and local capitals must add pressure on the supermarket sector to get onside and help producers navigate the coming storm. Expanding Denmark’s “Made in Europe” labelling could be a simple, visible step member states can champion immediately. Meanwhile, at EU-level, the Commission must target retaliatory tariffs strategically to avoid needlessly exposing vulnerable farmers – an approach embodied by its smart decision to drop US bourbon, wine and dairy from its retaliatory tariffs list following input from key member-states.
But avoiding missteps will not suffice. Brussels must act, from unlocking new funding support for farmers and shielding them from a flood of redirected Chinese exports to diversifying markets beyond the U.S., which accounts for less than 20% of EU external trade. Trump’s protectionism has notably added wind in the sails of Mercosur – a deal long resisted by France, but now gaining unexpected traction in Paris.
With Trump’s sword of Damocles still hovering above its head, the EU cannot afford a return to business as usual. The bloc’s agri-food producers are on the front lines of the looming trade war, making it vital that Brussels send a clear message that the continent stands ready to defend its producers with unity and unwavering resolve.
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