By Prarthana Mitra
Latest observations predict that an old Chinese space lab Tiangong-1 is expected to re-enter the earth’s atmosphere for the first time since its initial launch in September 2011, on March 31, narrowing the window down by a considerable bit.
Tiangong, which translates to ‘heavenly palace’ was one of the first experimental space stations built by the Chinese.
How accurate are the estimates?
Earlier this month, scientists from space organisations all over the world tried to ascertain the time and place for the expected fall, putting it down for a March-end landing.
According to predictions by The European Space Agency the space lab which terminated its data service operations in 2016 will crash to earth sometime between March 30 and April 6.
However, the research organization, Aerospace pins the time of re-entry down to April 1. The organization further states that it is easy to predict the time of the crash, but it is very difficult to determine a precise geographic location for it— especially as the Chinese have relinquished all control over the station.
Where will be debris fall?
Sources in Aerospace reveal that the scope of impact zones is wide and according to most accurate calculations, certain American states are most likely to be hit. These states include Southern Wisconsin, parts of Indiana and Illinois, and nearly all of Iowa and Ohio.
What happens after the crash?
This uncertainty leaves us with very little time to prepare for a possible evacuation before the crash. However, it is important to know that Even if some debris made its way to the ground, the chances of getting hit are negligible.
Researchers at Aerospace found out that risk to an individual that they will be ”hit and injured by a piece of debris is estimated to be less than one in a one trillion.”
Only one person has ever got hit by falling space debris in the history of defunct space stations crashing to earth, and she survived with minimal injuries. In 1997, Lottie Williams in Tulsa, Oklahoma was hit by material later found to belong to a Delta II rocket that had launched a U.S. Air Force satellite in 1996.
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