By Ashima Makhija
Within a week of its breakup with Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, the BJP faces another significant split in Andhra Pradesh. On Saturday, the CM of AP and the national president of the Telugu Democratic Party (TDP), Chandrababu Naidu, hinted at a breakup of his party’s alliance with the BJP. The TDP chief contended that his party has carefuly followed the principles of the ‘coalition dharma’ but that the state BJP has repeatedly crossed over the line in the power sharing arrangement. The TDP and BJP share power both in Delhi and in Amaravati. Another fallout from the NDA, coming immediately after the split with Shiv Sena, would be catastrophic for the BJP leaind up to the 2019 Lok Sabha general elections. It is a further indication of the party’s faltering power in the states and a lack of cohesiveness in the national alliance.
What led to the breakup?
Speculations about a rift in the TDP-BJP alliance have been rife for a long time now. The relationship between these parties began to deteriorate after the state BJP leaders openly criticised the AP government, of which they were a part. The local saffron leaders have delivered regular pot-shots against the Naidu regime and have threatened that BJP can grow in AP only if it continues its alliance with the TDP.
Naidu has cautioned his party colleagues all along not to indulge in a verbal shouting match. That is why his press conference on the 27th of January holds significant importance. His threat to breakup with the BJP and charter his party’s course by himself in 2019 and in future electoral competitions, is directed at the national leadership. His message was directed at the BJP high command to force them rein in its state leaders.
However, the disputes among the local leaders are not the only issue in this political relationship. Naidu is not happy with the stingy behaviour of the central government. He has repeatedly emphasised that the state of Andhra needs generous dollops of help, but the Modi government has not been forthcoming. The flow of funds for the Polavaram irrigation project, which Naidu sees as the passport to a second term in office, is riddled with massive problems.
Another irritant for the Naidu regime has been the growing closeness between the BJP and YSR Congress. Jagan Mohan Reddy of the YSR Congress, who is an arch rival of Chief Minister Naidu, has said, “If Andhra Pradesh is given special status, then we are ready to support BJP.” Many BJP state leaders feel that the party should align with Reddy in its bid for another term. The carrot for the BJP would be that Jagan may help the party win more seats from the state in the Lok Sabha.
The prospects of a split
Naidu has issued an ultimatum to the central BJP leadership demanding that it discipline its state leaders and threatening to walk away from the alliance, and most observers expect that the central leadership will comply with his demands. The foremost reason is that the BJP knows that it has barely any political presence in the state. However, while the BJP could lose power in AP, the TDP is capable of independent sailing. If the TDP contests the next election on its own and blames the BJP for not giving the state special status, it can sweep the 2019 polls.
Nevertheless, although at the state level the TDP may be efficient, at the national level it is handicapped without BJP. Naidu cannot be part of the Congress-led UPA. His failed experiment with a Third Front in the 1990s taught him that rickety political structures are bound to have a short political life. With Andhra state being cash-strapped, Naidu can hardly afford to make Modi into a political enemy.
Naidu’s announcement has come at a crucial period. The divorce with Shiv Sena and trouble fomenting in Andhra Pradesh and even Bihar, point to the possibility of unstable and quarrelsome relations in the National Democratic Alliance. Furthermore, friends turning into foes will be seen as an indication that the BJP is no longer a winning horse. With the high-stakes 2019 polls fast approaching, it is time for the BJP to make amends and take its regional partners and allies into consideration in national-level policy and decision making.
Featured Image Source: Flickr
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