By K I John
With the State Assembly elections looming over the entirety of 2018, an essence of clarity can be assumed in regard to the perspective with which the people perceive the future political landscape of the country. With elections in Nagaland, Meghalaya, Tripura and Karnataka dominating the first half of the year, it is set to be followed by elections in Mizoram, and the BJP-ruled states of Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The past year saw the BJP, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, claiming victories in almost all assembly elections. However, with Rahul Gandhi at the helm, the Congress has taken large strides, primarily in the Gujarat elections. The year ahead will thereby prove as to whether the Congress party will gain sufficient ground to pose a threat to the current BJP rule.
The elections will also be fueled by regional parties playing a dominant role in the formation of the government in a number of states. These eight upcoming elections will ultimately pave the way to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Nagaland
Nagaland will be the first state in the country to vote in 2018. The politics of the state are primarily tribe-driven and is currently ruled by the Democratic Alliance of Nagaland, with the Naga People’s Front (NPF) as a primary partner. With elections scheduled in February, the NPF will be campaigning to retain power in the state. In the 2013 elections, the NPF had won 37 of the 60 seats to form the government. The Congress had won 8 seats, whereas the BJP had won just 2 in 2013.
Meghalaya
Meghalaya will vote in February. The Congress government under Mukul Sangma is the current ruling party in the state. It is a state where independents have a huge sway in the state. In the 2013 elections, the Congress party was able to win 29 seats. However, with the recent resignation of 8 MLAs, 5 of whom were from Congress, this year could prove different.
Tripura
In the 2013 election in Tripura, the Left Front retained power for their fifth consecutive year as the CPI(M) were able to win 49 out of 60 seats. Chief Minister Manik Sarkar has been in office since 1998. The tribals in the region have remained a devoted voter base of the communists since the 1960s. The state’s government has of late been in confrontation with the centre over the denial to broadcast Chief Minister Manik Sarkar’s independence day speech.
Karnataka
With the tenure of the existing assembly expiring in May 2018, the state is expected to go to polls around April 2018. Of the 225 seats in the assembly, the Congress holds 123 seats, at present, while the BJP has 44. The Janata Dal, led by former Prime Minister H. D. Deve Gowda, had won 40 seats. However, the number of members has reduced to 32 due to the suspension of 8 MLAs.
Mizoram
In the effort to increase their impact in the North East, the BJP under Amit Shah will vie to oppose the Congress as an alternative ruling party. The merger of the Maraland Democratic Front with the BJP is likely to strengthen the BJP’s chances in the elections scheduled this year. The Congress is the current ruling party, having won 34 seats in the 2013 elections.
Chhattisgarh
The current BJP government, under Chief Minister Raman Singh, was formed for the third consecutive term in 2013. Yet a tough fight is always faced from the Congress party in the state. Out of the total strength of the assembly of 90 seats, 50 seats were won by the BJP, in the 2013 election. The Congress, on the other hand, was able to attain up to 39 seats.
Madhya Pradesh
In December 2018, the state of Madhya Pradesh will vote on 230 seats to elect a new government. The BJP-led government under Chief Minister, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, was elected for the third term, in the 2013 elections. With the tenure of the ruling government ending in January 2019, the elections are scheduled to take place at the end of this year.
Rajasthan
The state governed by the BJP under Vasundhara Raje is scheduled to hold elections towards the end of 2018. Of the 200 seats, the BJP won 163, whereas the Congress only managed 21 seats in the 2013 election. However, with increased violence, lynching and communal hatred under the BJP government, the upcoming elections will shed some light on the mindset and perception of the people.
The deciding factor
Thus, in the span of the next year, the country is set to go through multiple assembly elections, to set the tone for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. With the advent of time, people have understood what it is that they need and want from a government, and actually strive for it. 2018 will thereby determine the political landscape of 2019, and the years to come.
Featured Image Source: Al Jazeera English on Visual Hunt / CC BY-SA
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