The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has not only dominated our newsfeeds over the past few weeks but has meant that other important concerns have been moved into the background as a stunned world looks on.
The conflict has now reached the climate crisis, after a Russian delegate at an important recent UN climate meeting took the opportunity to apologise for his country’s invasion of Ukraine. His Ukrainian counterpart, Svitlana Krakovska, meanwhile, underlined the connections between the crisis in Ukraine and the climate emergency—“human-induced climate change and the war on Ukraine have the same roots—fossil fuels—and our dependence on them”—and expressed her sadness that Russia’s aggression will take attention away from a critical report published this week by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
A crisis with no end
The report, compiled after years of work by scientists around the globe, shed light on the urgency of tackling the climate crisis, saying that the failure to curb emissions has left more than 3.3 billion people – around half of the world’s population – vulnerable to the consequences of climate change. It is still possible to reverse our fortunes, the report said, but doing so would require “transformational” action that looks increasingly unlikely. The IPCC’s message was stark: at our current trajectory, the world is likely to exceed 1.5C warming above pre-industrial levels. It is no exaggeration to say that would be catastrophic, with extreme weather events such as storms and droughts threatening the lives of millions.
In fact, one of the key issues raised by the report was the threat of a massive water crisis. Extreme heat causes drought and famine, and increases the risk of vector-borne and water-borne diseases, while extreme storms and sea-level rise cause flooding and devastation. By 2050, some of the world’s most important river basins, including the Ganges basin in South Asia, are likely to face severe water scarcity.
Finding a solution for the coming water crisis is essential, not least because water scarcity is already a major driver of conflict around the world. It’s fortunate timing that the 9th World Water Forum will be held later this month, from March 21st to 26th, in Dakar, Senegal—the first time the forum will be held in sub-Saharan Africa and a chance for civil society, the private sector and governments to come together and accelerate efforts to provide people around the world with clean water and sanitation.
The forum will bring together over 30,000 participants from all over the world to discuss global water challenges, such as water scarcity, climate change and water conflict. The forum is part of a series of conferences leading up to the UN Water Conference next year, and will be where diplomats and experts hammer out the proposals they will present at next year’s UN conference. What is agreed this month in Senegal will have important ramifications for the ability of governments and civil society to manage, and hopefully prevent, water crises.
Importantly, the theme of the discussions at this edition of the World Water Forum will be “Water Security for Peace and Development”. Water, or the lack of it, is one of the main drivers of conflict in many parts of the world. Water shortages have contributed to countless conflicts, including those between Israel and Palestine, India and Pakistan, and the civil war in Yemen. Access to clean, abundant water is a matter of national security and it is reasonable to plan for the possibility of even wider, more desperate conflicts as climate change leads to widespread drought and fires, and nations scrabble over access to dwindling natural resources to feed ever larger populations.
Water scarcity in Africa
It is also significant that the World Water Forum will, for the first time, be held time in sub-Saharan Africa. Africa is on the frontline of climate change, and the continent is acutely aware of the threats posed by water insecurity, which affects 1 in 3 Africans and has sparked conflict around the continent. The NGO Global Citizen predicts that Africa’s water crisis will tip towards catastrophe by 2025, with 230 million people on the continent facing water scarcity. Due to a rapidly growing population, accelerating urbanisation and the effects of climate change, the continent will soon face two related water crises: the physical scarcity of water, as lakes dry up and rain ceases to fall, and economic scarcity, as more and more people compete for water.
This is not the far future. It is already happening. Last month, the UN’s World Food Programme said an estimated 13 million people in the Horn of Africa, including Kenya and Ethiopia, are facing severe hunger after years of consecutive drought. The price of staple food in the region have skyrocketed and malnutrition remains endemic. Years of drought around Lake Chad in Cameroon has led to violent clashes between farmers and herders as both groups compete for scarce water resources. According to the UN, the surface of Lake Chad, a source of food for the north of the country, has decreased by 95% over the last decades.
A similar situation exists in Tanzania, where changing weather patterns have forced cattle herds to drive hundreds of their animals onto farmland and wildlife sanctuaries in search of animal feed. Groups of farmers and herders have taken up arms and clashed, resulting in the tragic loss of life. Last month six people were reportedly killed by a group of herders armed with machetes, guns and axes.
The climate crisis is not going away and the conflicts in Tanzania and Chad could soon be much closer to home. It is crucial, now more than ever, that the international community bands together together to find a solution to the underlying issues. While the recent UN climate meeting was overshadowed by the current conflict in Ukraine, the upcoming World Water Forum will hopefully be a chance for peaceful cooperation to address issues that could, in the not-too-distant future, spark countless conflicts around the world.
