By Madhulika Gupta
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged triumphant in the 2014 Indian General Elections, winning with an absolute majority of 282 seats, a feat which no political party had achieved in the past 30 years. With the 2019 Lok Sabha elections looming, the loss of the constituencies of Gorakhpur and Phulpur in March in the by-elections the BJP is not far from the half-way mark in the 543 member house.
The party was confident about sweeping the bypolls but failed to estimate the power of the SP-BSP alliance. However, loss in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar bypolls added salt to their open wounds. However, the BJP did have a landmark victory in the Assembly elections in the three North-Eastern states of Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya with the help of allies, restoring some of its falling graphs.
The loss of confidence in the National Democratic Alliance has made it no secret that not only is the BJP slowly and steadily losing its allies. The party needs to gear up not only for the battle of 2019 but also for the possibility of a rainbow coalition- something that Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader Mamata Banerjee is trying hard to cobble up.
Rainbow coalition in 1996 and now
A flashback to two decades ago (1996) leads us to the last rainbow coalition of the ‘United Front’ formed by a mix of regional parties such as Left Front and the Janata Dal (JD). BJP’s first stint at forming a Government led by A.B. Vajpayee, left the country with a failed government after Vajpayee resigned 13 days into his term, yeilding to Deve Gowda of JD and a United Front coalition Government. Gowda now leads the JD in Karnataka, a state goes to polls in four weeks.
The rainbow coalition was a result of a political instability in the country at that time. It led to chaos in the country and a strong hit to the market and economy. However, the possibility of another rainbow coalition in 2019 is not far from reality. Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar has expressed the idea of a coalition of “like-minded” parties to challenge BJP time and again. While no party has affirmed to this, former Congress President Sonia Gandhi hosted a dinner for “like-minded parties” at her residence a fortnight ago.
Additionally, the AAP, TMC, AIMIM, CPI(M), AIADMK also stood up to support TDP’s no-confidence motion in the Parliament against the BJP-led NDA government. The motion was led by the TDP and supported by their rival YSR Congress party, a clear exhibition of BJP’s dwindling support in the south.
Uphill climb to 2019
BJP seems to be having a tough time south of the mainland- particularly in the Deccan region (Maharashtra & Andhra Pradesh), South India (Tamil Nadu & Kerala) and West Bengal. There always has been animosity between BJP and Mamata Banerjee-led TMC in Bengal. Additionally, Tamil Nadu has never been receptive to BJP’s politics. Kerala, a stronghold of the Left faces the same problem where BJP’s entry might be difficult to impossible.
The BJP has already lost out on Shiv Sena as an ally in Maharashtra, and with the looming threat of a break-up with TDP, there is an impending disaster waiting to happen for BJP. Andhra Pradesh is the only Southern state where BJP has a presence, however marginal it may be. While experts do have faith in the political aptitude of Narendra Modi-Amit Shah to revive the party, and it has successfully gathered some new allies in the North-East, but it undeniably faces an uphill climb to come close to a majority in 2019.
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