This article is the second part of a series of two articles by Tushar Kansal. Find the first part here.
By Tushar Kansal
In the first part of the article, I talked about a country missing from the picture. Let’s take a look at the map – the final pressure needs to come from the northern border of China, the Russian front. China indeed realises its weak link up is its North border. After China’s defeat at the hands of Russia at Ussuri River, it learned its lesson well. It promptly settled its border with Russia.
What is shocking is that China took some land from Russian control to settle the border. This has been the policy of China, with all other countries with which it settled its borders, take land and proceed with the final settlement.
With the subsequent international isolation of Russia by the USA and EU, it is China which has stood up to Russia, but in ways beneficial to it. With West’s sanctions against Russia, China made the most of its permanent seat in UN Security Council: A $400 billion Russia Gas deal, big defense orders like the S400 batteries and cutting-edge technology Sukhoi’s, merging of One-belt-One-road project with the Eurasian Union and the strengthening of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation). China also made full use of its UN seat by cutting mega deals with anyone sided by the US; like the mega Iran oil deal stitched during sanctions on Iran, prior to US-Iran nuclear deal.
But China is also a threat to Russia as it claims the entire Siberia. A Chinese daily explains this.
What is Russia to USA & EU and more importantly, what can it be? Russia, under Putin, is currently seen as a thorn in the eyes of USA & EU. While a large reason for this is the history of Russia’s superpower moves as the erstwhile Soviet Union, a case can be made that the offensive policy of USA & EU is past overdue. USA, EU and Russia share a common Christian civilization. The heads of Orthodox & Catholic Church also met recently in Havana and shared a common vision for the two.
Russia’s fight against ISIS (Islamic state) in Syria, shows the kind of understanding it has of political Islam and the Middle East.
History shows it was Russia which defeated political Islam through the ages – be it Ottoman Empire, conquering Islamic marauders coming down from the Central Asian steppes, subduing Arabs from Arabia to Egypt to Slavic lands of ex-Yugoslavia, with Jihad on their mind.
The USA, in spite of its wars in Iraq & Afghanistan, seems to have liberal blinkers and not the usual experience & understanding of the dictatorships which Islam creates for propagation purposes.
There is indeed a case of a coalition between large powers against China. With Australia, South Korea, and ASEAN, Russia doesn’t have prominent issues. Only with Japan, there is a legacy issue of the Kuril Islands under the occupation of Russia. But the recent visit of Japanese PM Shinzo Abe to Russia seems to be resolving that. What remains is the US deep state syndrome and Ukraine’s bid to solve US rapprochement with Russia.
Of late, Obama has been traveling to places which historically have been at war with the US. Cuba, Hiroshima, Iran, Myanmar, and Vietnam being cases in point. He seems to be wanting to live up to his Nobel Peace prize and leaving an Obama legacy of applying a ‘soothing balm’ to these countries.
Why not Russia?
The US would do better to solve the China problem by letting go of its involvement in Ukraine in return for a long-term partnership. That would be a true Obama moment in history!
With Russia in a bear hug with China, now it’s up to US to recognize Russia as a long-term ally. An adverse US action against any country in the world results in that country going to the other camp whose flag bearers are China & Russia. With US, EU, and Japanese economies in perennial decline, US needs to break this theorem to maintain its longevity of rule in a multi-polar world with close cooperation with Russia. Such an approach is only based on principles of this age: democracy, freedom and rule of law.
China has a $10 trillion economy, but it’s an outlier to the open system propagated by the West and indeed a threat to it. It’s another Soviet Union which is sitting, by sheer force, in the annexed countries of East Turkestan, Tibet, and Inner Mongolia. It has an outsized ego, is too big for an authoritarian system to be at peace with the world and carries a heft (largely based on its nuisance value).
Hence, I posit that Putin & Obama need to hug & make up to solve the China problem: US deep state needs to embrace Russia.
With China out of the Pakistan equation, India will ensure that Pakistan terrorism, which is guilty of affecting the entire world, goes down and the military state controlling Pakistan also gets relinquished. With cutting down of Pakistan to size, the Afghanistan problem will also be solved. It will also enable the world to curtail the ‘International Migraine’ (Hillary Clinton’s creative christening) that Pakistan is, by looking to have maintainable countries in the form of Baluchistan, NWFP (North West Frontier Province) and Sindh, break offs from the terrorist state of Pakistan. It would also enable to denuclearise Pakistan.
Tushar Kansal is a reputed columnist and the CFO of IndusB2C.com
Featured Image Source: Pexels